IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ime/imedps/18-e-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy Announcement and Algorithmic News Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market

Author

Listed:
  • Keiichi Goshima

    (Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: keiichi.goshima@boj.or.jp))

  • Yusuke Kumano

    (Deputy Director and Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently, Research and Statistics Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: yuusuke.kumano@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

We analyze the effects of algorithmic news trading (ANT) in the foreign exchange market around the time that the Bank of Japan makes public announcements of its policy decisions. To observe the activity level of ANT, we propose a novel measure based on a web access record to a central bank fs webpage. We find that our proposed measure appropriately captures the activity level of ANT. Employing an event study analysis and a VAR analysis, we find that ANT increases market volatility immediately after the monetary policy announcements, and that ANT activity indirectly decreases market liquidity through increasing volatility. In addition, we suggest that ANT trades based on changes of texts on monetary policy announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Keiichi Goshima & Yusuke Kumano, 2018. "Monetary Policy Announcement and Algorithmic News Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," IMES Discussion Paper Series 18-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:18-e-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/18-E-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange volatility and jumps," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 361-385.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November.
    3. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael & Wu, Thomas, 2012. "Asymmetries and state dependence: The impact of macro surprises on intraday exchange rates," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 542-560.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    6. Scholtus, Martin & van Dijk, Dick & Frijns, Bart, 2014. "Speed, algorithmic trading, and market quality around macroeconomic news announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 89-105.
    7. Thierry Foucault & Johan Hombert & Ioanid Roşu, 2016. "News Trading and Speed," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 335-382, February.
    8. Rosa, Carlo, 2011. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates to monetary policy actions and statements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 478-489, February.
    9. Bauwens, Luc & Ben Omrane, Walid & Giot, Pierre, 2005. "News announcements, market activity and volatility in the euro/dollar foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1108-1125, November.
    10. Menkveld, Albert J., 2013. "High frequency trading and the new market makers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 712-740.
    11. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    12. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    13. Fatum, Rasmus & Scholnick, Barry, 2008. "Monetary policy news and exchange rate responses: Do only surprises matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1076-1086, June.
    14. Terrence Hendershott & Charles M. Jones & Albert J. Menkveld, 2011. "Does Algorithmic Trading Improve Liquidity?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 1-33, February.
    15. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.
    16. Cook, Timothy & Hahn, Thomas, 1989. "The effect of changes in the federal funds rate target on market interest rates in the 1970s," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 331-351, November.
    17. Christian Conrad & Michael J. Lamla, 2010. "The High‐Frequency Response of the EUR‐USD Exchange Rate to ECB Communication," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1391-1417, October.
    18. Jonathan Brogaard & Terrence Hendershott & Ryan Riordan, 2014. "High-Frequency Trading and Price Discovery," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(8), pages 2267-2306.
    19. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    20. Hendershott, Terrence & Riordan, Ryan, 2013. "Algorithmic Trading and the Market for Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1001-1024, August.
    21. Tarun Chordia, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Stock and Bond Market Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 85-129.
    22. Alain P. Chaboud & Benjamin Chiquoine & Erik Hjalmarsson & Clara Vega, 2014. "Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2045-2084, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Algorithmic trading; Monetary policy; High frequency data; Foreign exchange market; News trading; Market microstructure; Web access record;

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:18-e-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/imegvjp.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.