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Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Carlo A. Favero

Abstract

Observed policy rates are smooth. Why should central banks smooth interest rates? We investigate if model uncertainty and parameters instability are a valid reason. We do so by implementing a novel ´´thick recursive modelling´´ approach within the framework of small structural macroeconomic models. At each point in time we estimate all models generated by the combinations of a base-set of $k$ observable regressors. Our econometric procedure delivers 2$^{k}$ models for aggregate demand and supply at any point in time. We compute optimal monetary policies for each of these specifications and then take their average as our benchmark optimal monetary policy. We then compare observed policy rates with those generated by the traditional ´´thin modelling´´ approach to optimal monetary policy and to our proposed ´´thick modelling´´ approach. Our results confirm the difficulty of recovering the deep parameters describing the preferences of the monetary policy makers from their observed behaviour. However, they also show that thick recursive modelling can, at least partially, explain the observed interest rate smoothness.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:196
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    Cited by:

    1. Castelnuovo, Efrem, 2003. "Describing the Fed's conduct with Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Working Paper Series 232, European Central Bank.
    2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2004. "Describing the Fed's conduct with simple Taylor rules: is interest rate smoothing important?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 12, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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