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Credibility and the value of information transmission in a model of monetary policy and inflation

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  • Basar, Tamer
  • Salmon, Mark

Abstract

In this paper we solve for the optimal (Stackelberg) policy in a model of credibility and monetary policy developed by Cukierman and Meltzer. Unlike the (Nash) solution provided by Cukierman and Meltzer, the dynamic optimization problem facing the monetary authority in this case is not of a linear quadratic form and certainty equivalence does not apply. The learning behavior of the private sector (regarding the policymaker's preferences) becomes intimately linked with the choice of the optimal policy and cannot be separated as in the certainty equivalent case. Once the dual effect of the optimal Stackelberg policy is recognized, the monetary authority has an additional channel of influence to consider beyond that taken into account by sub-optimal, certainty equivalent, Nash policy rules.
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  • Basar, Tamer & Salmon, Mark, 1990. "Credibility and the value of information transmission in a model of monetary policy and inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 97-116, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:14:y:1990:i:1:p:97-116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cripps, Martin, 1988. "Learning Rational Expectations In A Policy Game," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 297, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ellison, Martin & Sarno, Lucio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2004. "Monetary policy and learning in an open economy," Research Discussion Papers 3/2004, Bank of Finland.
    2. Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002. " Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145.
    3. Ellison, Martin & Sarno, Lucio & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2007. "Caution Or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies In An Open Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 519-541, September.
    4. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    5. Caleiro, António, 2005. "How to Classify a Government? Can a Neural Network do it?," EconStor Preprints 142736, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    6. Felipe Morandé & Mauricio Tejada, 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty for Conducting Monetary Policy in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 492, Central Bank of Chile.
    7. Geraats, Petra Maria, 2001. "Precommitment, Transparency and Monetary Policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2001,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Felipe Morandé L. & Mauricio Tejada G., 2008. "Sources of Uncertainty in Monetary Policy Conduct in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(3), pages 45-80, December.

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