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The Cost of Low Inflation in Case of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Zobia BHATTI

    (Department of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan.)

  • Abdul QAYYUM

    (Department of Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Pakistan.)

Abstract

It is a debatable issue that high and variable inflation causes the well fare loss while on the other side reducing inflation generally has some cost and the amount of that cost is measured by the sacrifice ratio. Therefore inflation output trade off is important for central banks when formulating policy. Sacrifice ratio is the main indicator to measure the real cost of disinflation, calculated as the ratio of the cumulative percentage output loss (the difference between actual and potential output) to the size of disinflation. Thus, the sacrifice ratio measures the real output cost per unit of permanent decrease in inflation. Sacrifice ratio is basically divided into two main categories, time invariant sacrifice ratio and episode specific sacrifice ratio. In time invariant sacrifice ratio we took Philips Curve, structural VAR and in episode specific ratio we took Ball method of sacrifice ratio and Zhang method of sacrifice ratio. We found positive sacrifice ratio in almost all the methods but the magnitude of the sacrifice ratio is not large and the estimates of sacrifice ratio are sensitive to different estimation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Zobia BHATTI & Abdul QAYYUM, 2016. "The Cost of Low Inflation in Case of Pakistan," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 257-268, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksp:journ5:v:3:y:2016:i:2:p:257-268
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Muhammad Farooq Arby, 2001. "Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP," SBP Working Paper Series 01, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Devrim Yavuz & Arzu Cetinkaya, 2002. "Calculation Of Output-Inflation Sacrifice Ratio : The Case Of Turkey," Working Papers 0211, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    5. Coffinet, G. & Matheron, J. & Poilly, C., 2007. "Estimating the sacrifice ratio for the euro area," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 08, pages 5-34, Summer.
    6. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-427, October.
    7. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    8. Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2005. "Sacrifice Ratios with Long‐Lived Effects," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(2), pages 231-262, August.
    9. Patrick Fève & Julien Matheron & Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc, 2010. "Disinflation Shocks in the Eurozone: A DSGE Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2‐3), pages 289-323, March.
    10. W. Wascher & Palle S. Andersen, 1999. "Sacrifice ratios and the conduct of monetary policy in conditions of low inflation," BIS Working Papers 82, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sharif, Bushra & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "Estimating the Inflation-Output Gap Trade-Off with Triangle Model in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91166, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Output loss; Sacrifice ratio; Philips Curve; Structural VAR; Potential output; Cost of disinflation; Pakistan.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E59 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Other

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