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Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Farooq Arby

    () (State Bank of Pakistan)

Abstract

Gross domestic product may be considered, a combination of three processes viz., long-run trend, business cycles and short-run shocks. The series of GDP can be decomposed in to its three components by using some statistical method. Such a decomposition of real GDP of Pakistan reveals that the Pakistan’s economy has a declining growth in long-run trend since early 1980s that however, is expected to start rising in 2001-02. Pakistan is also facing a recessionary phase of third business cycle, which is expected to end in 2004-05.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Farooq Arby, 2001. "Long-Run Trend, Business Cycles and Short-Run Shocks in Real GDP," SBP Working Paper Series 01, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbp:wpaper:01
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    File URL: http://www.sbp.org.pk/repec/sbp/wpaper/wp01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2001
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdullah Muhammad Iqbal & Iram Khan & Zeeshan Ahmed, 2015. "Earnings Management and Privatisations: Evidence from Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 79-96.
    2. repec:aud:audfin:v:15:y:2017:i:148:p:686 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; GDP;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts

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