The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models vs. Simple Linear Econometric Models
In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson ["Journal of Econometrics" (2005a), forthcoming] as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano ["Journal of Business and Economic Statistics" (1995), Vol. 13, pp. 253-263]; and West ["Econometrica" (1996), Vol. 64, pp. 1067-1084] are used to compare the alternative models. A number of simple time-series prediction models (such as autoregressive and vector autoregressive (VAR) models) are additionally used as strawman models. Given that DSGE model restrictions are routinely nested within VAR models, the addition of our strawman models allows us to indirectly assess the usefulness of imposing theoretical restrictions implied by DSGE models on unrestricted econometric models. With respect to predictive density evaluation, our results suggest that the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo ["Journal of Monetary Economics" (1983), Vol. XII, pp. 383-398] is not outperformed by the same model augmented either with information or indexation, when used to predict the output gap. On the other hand, there are clear gains to using the more recent models when predicting inflation. Results based on mean square forecast error analysis are less clear-cut, although the standard sticky price model fares best at our longest forecast horizon of 3 years, it performs relatively poorly at shorter horizons. When the strawman time-series models are added to the picture, we find that the DSGE models still fare very well, often outperforming our forecast competitions, suggesting that theoretical macroeconomic restrictions yield useful additional information for forming macroeconomic forecasts. Copyright 2005 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 67 (2005)
Issue (Month): s1 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0305-9049
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=0305-9049|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:67:y:2005:i:s1:p:905-930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)or (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.