IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-23-00361.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the trajectories of the Okun's coefficient and NAIRU with the rolling regression method: Evidence from Lebanon

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Verne

    (Université Saint-Joseph de Beyrouth, Faculté de Sciences Economiques)

Abstract

We use the rolling regression method to estimate the Okun relationship and the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) in Lebanon between 1991 and 2021.We found that a stagflation phenomenon exists, and the NAIRU is high. It turns out that the Okun coefficient is low and unstable. In addition, we show that an increase in the unemployment rate above the NAIRU entails a decrease in the GDP growth rate (under the potential GDP growth rate) and increases the inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Verne, 2024. "Estimating the trajectories of the Okun's coefficient and NAIRU with the rolling regression method: Evidence from Lebanon," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 140-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00361
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2024/Volume44/EB-24-V44-I1-P12.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zongwu Cai & Ted Juhl, 2020. "The Distribution Of Rolling Regression Estimators," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202220, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.
    2. Bhattarai, Keshab, 2016. "Unemployment–inflation trade-offs in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 93-103.
    3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(4), pages 678-678.
    4. Zongwu Cai & Ted Juhl, 2020. "The Distribution Of Rolling Regression Estimators," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202218, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Johnson Worlanyo Ahiadorme, 2022. "Inflation, output and unemployment trade-offs in Sub-Saharan Africa countries," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 140-159, May.
    2. Esu, Godwin & Atan, Johnson, 2017. "The Philip's Curve in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 82112, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Willem Thorbecke, 2002. "A Dual Mandate for the Federal Reserve: The Pursuit of Price Stability and Full Employment," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 255-268, Spring.
    4. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    6. Kee, Hiau Looi & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2005. "Trade, capital accumulation and structural unemployment: an empirical study of the Singapore economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 125-152, June.
    7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. José Abraham López Machuca & Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, 2017. "Salarios, desempleo y productividad laboral en la industria manufacturera mexicana. (Wage, Unemployment and Labor Productivity in the Mexican Manufacturing Industry)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 185-228, October.
    9. Ftiti, Zied & Aguir, Abdelkader & Smida, Mounir, 2017. "Time-inconsistency and expansionary business cycle theories: What does matter for the central bank independence–inflation relationship?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 215-227.
    10. Eric Heyer & Frédéric Reynès & Henri Sterdyniak, 2004. "Observable and unobservable variables in the theory of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Working Papers hal-01027420, HAL.
    11. J.P.G. Reijnders, 2007. "Impulse or propagation? How the tides turned in Business Cycle Theory," Working Papers 07-07, Utrecht School of Economics.
    12. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2022. "Unemployment hysteresis by sex and education attainment in the EU," Working Papers 2022/06, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Mikael Carlsson & Stefan Eriksson & Nils Gottfries, 2006. "Testing Theories of Job Creation: Does Supply Create Its Own Demand?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1866, CESifo.
    14. John Haltiwanger & Mark Plant, 1984. "How Should We Measure Slackness in the Labor Market?," UCLA Economics Working Papers 343, UCLA Department of Economics.
    15. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2017. "Unemployment hysteresis and structural change in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1415-1440, December.
    16. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    17. Boyer, Robert, 1992. "La crise de la macroéconomie, une conséquence de la méconnaissance des institutions?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 68(1), pages 43-68, mars et j.
    18. Peter S. Yoo, 1998. "The FOMC in 1997: a real conundrum," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 27-40.
    19. Aurélien Goutsmedt, 2021. "From the Stagflation to the Great Inflation: Explaining the US economy of the 1970s," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 131(3), pages 557-582.
    20. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    21. Margarita Katsimi, 2000. "Stochastic shifts in the natural rate of unemployment: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 239-242.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O5 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-23-00361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.