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Okun’S Law And Phillips Curve Revisited: Nonlinear Evidence From The Moroccan Economy

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  • IBNOUZAHIR YOUSSEF

    (HASSAN II UNIVERSITY OF CASABLANCA, MOROCCO FACULTY OF LEGAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, MOHAMMEDIA, ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY)

  • HERRAZ ISMAIL

    (HASSAN II UNIVERSITY OF CASABLANCA, MOROCCO FACULTY OF LEGAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, MOHAMMEDIA, ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY)

  • BASSITE IMAD

    (HASSAN II UNIVERSITY OF CASABLANCA, MOROCCO FACULTY OF LEGAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, MOHAMMEDIA, ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY)

  • ELKHATTAB YOUNES

    (HASSAN II UNIVERSITY OF CASABLANCA, MOROCCO FACULTY OF LEGAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, MOHAMMEDIA, ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY)

  • HEFNAOUI AHMED

    (HASSAN II UNIVERSITY OF CASABLANCA, MOROCCO FACULTY OF LEGAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCES, MOHAMMEDIA, ECONOMIC AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE RESEARCH LABORATORY)

Abstract

This study examines the validity of Okun’s Law and the Phillips Curve in Morocco within a nonlinear framework, aiming to explain persistent unemployment despite sustained growth. Using annual data from 1981–2024 applying NARDL models, the analysis reveals asymmetric relationships among investment, inflation, growth, and unemployment. Negative shocks in investment and output significantly raise unemployment, while positive shocks yield weaker effects, confirming partial validity of Okun’s Law but rejecting the Phillips Curve. Results highlight Morocco’s structural rigidities and suggest policy measures promoting inclusive, labor-intensive investment and countercyclical strategies to mitigate adverse shocks and foster sustainable employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibnouzahir Youssef & Herraz Ismail & Bassite Imad & Elkhattab Younes & Hefnaoui Ahmed, 2025. "Okun’S Law And Phillips Curve Revisited: Nonlinear Evidence From The Moroccan Economy," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 71-86, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbu:jrnlec:y:2025:v:6:p:71-86
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