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Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic

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  • Òscar Jordà
  • Fernanda Nechio

Abstract

Following the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation surged to levels last seen in the 1980s. Motivated by vast differences in pandemic support across countries, we investigate the subsequent response of inflation and its feedback to wages. We exploit the differences in pandemic support to identify the effect that these programs had on inflation and the passthrough to wages. Our empirical approach focuses on a novel dynamic difference-in-differences method based on local projections. Our estimates suggest that an increase of 5 percentage points in direct transfers (relative to trend) translates into about a peak 3 percentage points boost to inflation and wage growth. Moreover, higher inflation accentuates the role of inflation expectations on wage setting dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Òscar Jordà & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Inflation and Wage Growth Since the Pandemic," Working Paper Series 2022-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94747
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2022-17
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    2. Stefan Hohberger, 2025. "Germany’s macroeconomic drivers during the pandemic and inflation surge," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-49, February.
    3. Richiardi, Matteo & Bambra, Clare & Sutton, Matt & Vittal Katikireddi, Srinivasa & Wickham, Sophie & Taylor-Robinson, David & Craig, Peter & Barr, Benjamin & Morris, Steph & Hugh-Jones, Samuel & Marim, 2025. "Estimating population mental health effects of the rollout of Universal Credit: difference-in-differences analyses using the UK Household Longitudinal Study, 2009 – 2019," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA3/25, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2025. "Fiscal policy design and inflation: The COVID-19 pandemic experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian & Möhrle, Sascha, 2024. "Inflation and Wage Expectations of Firms and Employees," IZA Discussion Papers 17269, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Hale, Galina & Leer, John & Nechio, Fernanda, 2022. "Inflationary Effects of Fiscal Support to Households and Firms," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8qt1t3t4, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    7. Amores, Antonio F. & Christl, Michael & De Agostini, Paola & De Poli, Silvia & Maier, Sofia, 2025. "Limiting Prices or Transferring Money? An ex ante assessment of alternative measures to cope with the hike in energy prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert L., 2026. "Uncertainty shocks and inflation: The role of credibility and expectation anchoring," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    9. Jain, Monica & Kostyshyna, Olena & Zhang, Xu, 2024. "How do people view wage and price inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    11. Coccia, Samantha & Russo, Alberto, 2025. "Inflation, inequality and financial vulnerability: Monetary vs. fiscal policy in the face of an energy shock," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    12. Erwan Gautier & Frédérique Savignac & Olivier Coibion, 2025. "Firms' Inflation and Wage Expectations during the Inflation Surge," NBER Working Papers 33799, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lucas Ordóñez, 2025. "The Transmission of Supply Shocks to Inflation: the Case of Argentina (2004-2022)," Working Papers 351, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    14. Guido Ascari & Dennis Bonam & Lorenzo Mori & Andra Smadu, 2024. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 820, DNB.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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