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How good are out of sample forecasting Tests on DSGE models?

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  • Minford, Patrick
  • Zhou, Peng
  • Xu, Yongdeng

Abstract

Out-of-sample forecasting tests of DSGE models against time-series benchmarks such as an unrestricted VAR are increasingly used to check a) the specification b) the forecasting capacity of these models. We carry out a Monte Carlo experiment on a widely-used DSGE model to investigate the power of these tests. We find that in specification testing they have weak power relative to an in-sample indirect inference test; this implies that a DSGE model may be badly mis-specified and still improve forecasts from an unrestricted VAR. In testing forecasting capacity they also have quite weak power, particularly on the lefthand tail. By contrast a model that passes an indirect inference test of specification will almost definitely also improve on VAR forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Minford, Patrick & Zhou, Peng & Xu, Yongdeng, 2014. "How good are out of sample forecasting Tests on DSGE models?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10090, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10090
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    2. Patrick Minford & Yi Wang & Peng Zhou, 2020. "Resolving the public-sector wage premium puzzle by indirect inference," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(7), pages 726-741, February.
    3. David Meenagh & Patrick Minford & Michael Wickens & Yongdeng Xu, 2019. "Testing DSGE Models by Indirect Inference: a Survey of Recent Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 593-620, July.
    4. Chou, Jenyu & Easaw, Joshy & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "Does inattentiveness matter for DSGE modeling? An empirical investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    5. Vo Phuong Mai Le & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2024. "The Role of Fiscal Policy — A Survey of Recent Empirical Findings," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 985-998, November.
    6. Minford, Patrick & Meenagh, David & Wickens, Michael R., 2021. "Estimating macro models and the potentially misleading nature of Bayesian estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 15684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Loberto, Michele & Perricone, Chiara, 2017. "Does trend inflation make a difference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-375.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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