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Equilibrium Heterogeneous-Agent models as measurement tools: Some Monte Carlo evidence

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  • Cozzi, Marco

Abstract

This paper discusses a series of Monte Carlo experiments designed to evaluate the empirical properties of Heterogeneous-Agent macroeconomic models in the presence of sampling variability. The calibration procedure leads to the welfare analysis being conducted with the wrong parameters. The ability of the calibrated model to correctly predict the long-run welfare changes induced by a set of policy experiments is assessed. The results show that, for the policy reforms with sizable welfare effects (i.e., more than 0.2%), the model always predicts the right sign of the welfare effects. However, the welfare effects can be evaluated with the wrong sign, when they are small and when the sample size is fairly limited. Quantitatively, the maximum errors made in evaluating a policy change are very small for some reforms (in the order of 0.02 percentage points), but bigger for others (in the order of 0.6 percentage points). Finally, having access to better data, in terms of larger samples, does lead to substantial increases in the precision of the welfare effects estimates, though the rate of convergence can be slow.

Suggested Citation

  • Cozzi, Marco, 2014. "Equilibrium Heterogeneous-Agent models as measurement tools: Some Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-226.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:208-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.12.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Cozzi, 2018. "Efficiency Units of Labor: Life-Cycle Profiles Estimates from the CPS 1987-2017," Department Discussion Papers 1804, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    2. Dumbraveanu Andrada-Alexandra, 2016. "The More, the Better: Life Satisfaction in the Bitter Welfare State," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 1015-1038, December.
    3. Marco Cozzi, 2018. "Optimal Capital Taxation with Incomplete Markets and Schumpeterian Growth," Department Discussion Papers 1803, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    4. Coqueret, Guillaume, 2017. "Empirical properties of a heterogeneous agent model in large dimensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 180-201.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monte Carlo; Heterogeneous agents; Incomplete markets; Ex-ante policy evaluation; Welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets

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