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Noncausal Vector Autoregression

  • Lanne, Markku
  • Saikkonen, Pentti

In this paper, we propose a new noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model for non-Gaussian time series. The assumption of non-Gaussianity is needed for reasons of identifiability. Assuming that the error distribution belongs to a fairly general class of elliptical distributions, we develop an asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood estimation and statistical inference. We argue that allowing for noncausality is of particular importance in economic applications which currently use only conventional causal VAR models. Indeed, if noncausality is incorrectly ignored, the use of a causal VAR model may yield suboptimal forecasts and misleading economic interpretations. Therefore, we propose a procedure for discriminating between causality and noncausality. The methods are illustrated with an application to interest rate data.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 23717.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23717
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  1. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2008. "Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 737-68, June.
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  5. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Salyer, Kevin D. & Sheffrin, Steven M., 1998. "Spotting sunspots: Some evidence in support of models with self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 511-523, October.
  8. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
  9. Lanne Markku & Saikkonen Pentti, 2011. "Noncausal Autoregressions for Economic Time Series," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 1-32, October.
  10. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer, 2007. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 524-529, March.
  11. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04.
  12. Kenneth Kasa & Todd B. Walker & Charles H. Whiteman, 2006. "Asset Prices in a Time Series Model with Perpetually Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Caepr Working Papers 2006-010, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  13. Lof Matthijs, 2013. "Noncausality and asset pricing," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 211-220, April.
  14. Susan Yang, Shu-Chun, 2005. "Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1557-1568, November.
  15. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Optimal Forecasting of Noncausal Autoregressive Time Series," MPRA Paper 23648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2008. "Modeling Expectations with Noncausal Autoregressions," MPRA Paper 8411, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Lof, Matthijs, 2011. "Noncausality and Asset Pricing," MPRA Paper 30519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2008. "Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics," NBER Working Papers 14028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
  20. Breid, F. Jay & Davis, Richard A. & Lh, Keh-Shin & Rosenblatt, Murray, 1991. "Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-198, February.
  21. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2011. "Non‚ÄźFundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 16-47, 04.
  22. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Noncausal autoregressions for economic time series," MPRA Paper 32943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  23. Rothenberg, Thomas J, 1971. "Identification in Parametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(3), pages 577-91, May.
  24. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  25. Christopher L. House & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2004. "Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 10415, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Kohn, R, 1979. "Asymptotic Estimation and Hypothesis Testing Results for Vector Linear Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 1005-30, July.
  27. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Review of Nonfundamentalness and Identification in Structural VAR Models," LEM Papers Series 2007/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  28. Douglas G. Steigerwald & Charles Stuart, 1997. "Econometric Estimation Of Foresight: Tax Policy And Investment In The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 32-40, February.
  29. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Modeling Expectations with Noncausal Autoregressions," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/20, European University Institute.
  30. Francq, Christian & Roy, Roch & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2005. "Diagnostic Checking in ARMA Models With Uncorrelated Errors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 532-544, June.
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  33. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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