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Noncausality and Asset Pricing

  • Lof, Matthijs

Misspecification of agents' information sets or expectation formation mechanisms maylead to noncausal autoregressive representations of asset prices. Annual US stock prices are found to be noncausal, implying that agents' expectations are not revealed to an outside observer such as an econometrician observing only realized market data. A simulation study shows that noncausal processes can be generated by asset-pricing models featuring heterogeneous expectations.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30519.

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Date of creation: 08 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30519
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  1. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "Bayesian Model Selection and Forecasting in Noncausal Autoregressive Models," MPRA Paper 23646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2011. "GMM Estimation with Non‐causal Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 581-592, October.
  3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  4. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2013. "Noncausal Vector Autoregression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(03), pages 447-481, June.
  5. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August.
  6. Ken Kasa & Todd Walker & Charles Whiteman, 2012. "Heterogenous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models," Discussion Papers dp12-06, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
  7. Breid, F. Jay & Davis, Richard A. & Lh, Keh-Shin & Rosenblatt, Murray, 1991. "Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-198, February.
  8. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Noncausal autoregressions for economic time series," MPRA Paper 32943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Parke, William R. & Waters, George A., 2007. "An evolutionary game theory explanation of ARCH effects," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 2234-2262, July.
  10. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
  11. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2011. "Non‐Fundamentalness in Structural Econometric Models: A Review," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 79(1), pages 16-47, 04.
  12. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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