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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models

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  • Kenneth Kasa
  • Todd B. Walker
  • Charles H. Whiteman

Abstract

This article develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia's (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee non-invertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents' information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents remain asymmetrically informed in equilibrium and must ‘forecast the forecasts of others’. An econometrician, who incorrectly imposes a homogeneous beliefs equilibrium, will find that the asset price displays violations of variance bounds, predictability of excess returns, and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Kasa & Todd B. Walker & Charles H. Whiteman, 2014. "Heterogeneous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(3), pages 1137-1163.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:81:y:2014:i:3:p:1137-1163
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdt051
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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design

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