Heterogenous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models
This paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia’s (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee noninvertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents’ information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents must ‘forecast the forecasts of others’. The additional dynamics of the heterogeneous beliefs equilibrium can account for observed violations of variance bounds, predictability of excess returns, and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.
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- Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2012.
"A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
786969000000000347, David K. Levine.
- Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski & Elias Albagli, 2012. "A theory of asset prices based on heterogeneous information," 2012 Meeting Papers 394, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2013. "A Theory of Asset Prices based on Heterogeneous Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 9291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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