Heterogenous Beliefs and Tests of Present Value Models
This paper develops a dynamic asset pricing model with persistent heterogeneous beliefs. The model features competitive traders who receive idiosyncratic signals about an underlying fundamentals process. We adapt Futia’s (1981) frequency domain methods to derive conditions on the fundamentals that guarantee noninvertibility of the mapping between observed market data and the underlying shocks to agents’ information sets. When these conditions are satisfied, agents must ‘forecast the forecasts of others’. The additional dynamics of the heterogeneous beliefs equilibrium can account for observed violations of variance bounds, predictability of excess returns, and rejections of cross-equation restrictions.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada|
Web page: http://www.sfu.ca/economics.html
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|Order Information:|| Postal: Working Paper Coordinator, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada|
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski & Elias Albagli, 2012.
"A theory of asset prices based on heterogeneous information,"
2012 Meeting Papers
394, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2011. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1827, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Albagli, Elias & Hellwig, Christian & Tsyvinski, Aleh, 2013. "A Theory of Asset Prices based on Heterogeneous Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 9291, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elias Albagli & Christian Hellwig & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2012. "A Theory of Asset Prices Based on Heterogeneous Information," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000347, David K. Levine.
- Christian Hellwig & Arijit Mukherji & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2005.
"Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
11191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aleh Tsyvinski & Arijit Mukherji & Christian Hellwig, 2006. "Self-Fulfilling Currency Crises: The Role of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1769-1787, December.
- Kristoffer Nimark, 2007.
"Dynamic higher order expectations,"
Economics Working Papers
1118, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2011.
- J. Michael Harrison & David M. Kreps, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-336.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2001. "Asset Pricing under Asymmetric Information: Bubbles, Crashes, Technical Analysis, and Herding," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296980, May.
- Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
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