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Speculative Dynamics

  • Peter Seiler

    (Honeywell Corporation)

  • Bart Taub

    (University of Illinois)

  • Dan Bernhardt

    (University of Illinois)

We then characterize analytically and numerically how the characteristics of private information—its quantity, persistence and correlation, and division among speculators—affect trading profits, pricing and trading strategies. In particular, we derive how speculators trade on new information versus old, and on private signals versus prices. We show via a frequency-domain argument that trading strategies emphasize new information versus old.

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File URL: https://www.economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2008/paper_171.pdf
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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2008 Meeting Papers with number 171.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed008:171
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Christian Zimmermann Economic Research Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis PO Box 442 St. Louis MO 63166-0442 USA
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Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm
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  1. Back, Kerry, 1992. "Insider Trading in Continuous Time," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 387-409.
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Back, Kerry & Pedersen, Hal, 1998. "Long-lived information and intraday patterns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 385-402, September.
  4. Foster, F. Douglas & Viswanathan, S., 1994. "Strategic Trading with Asymmetrically Informed Traders and Long-Lived Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(04), pages 499-518, December.
  5. Hua He & Jiang Wang, 1995. "Differential Information and Dynamic Behavior of Stock Trading Volume," NBER Working Papers 5010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Taub, Bart, 1986. "The tradeoff between social insurance and aggregate fluctuations," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 259-276, December.
  7. Taub, B., 1997. "Optimal policy in a model of endogenous fluctuations and assets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1669-1697, August.
  8. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September.
  9. Wang, Jiang, 1993. "A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices under Asymmetric Information," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 249-82, April.
  10. Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "Spectral utility, wiener-hopf techniques, and rational expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 225-240, October.
  11. Dan Bernhardt & Jianjun Miao, 2004. "Informed Trading When Information Becomes Stale," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 339-390, 02.
  12. Minh Chau & Dimitri Vayanos, 2008. "Strong-Form Efficiency with Monopolistic Insiders," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(5), pages 2275-2306, September.
  13. Ball, J. A. & Taub, B., 1991. "Factoring spectral matrices in linear-quadratic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 39-44, January.
  14. Kerry Back & C. Henry Cao & Gregory A. Willard, 2000. "Imperfect Competition among Informed Traders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 2117-2155, October.
  15. Wang, Jiang, 1994. "A Model of Competitive Stock Trading Volume," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(1), pages 127-68, February.
  16. Kenneth Kasa, 2000. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others in the Frequency Domain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(4), pages 726-756, October.
  17. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April.
  18. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
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