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Autoregression-Based Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

  • Lanne, Markku
  • Luoto, Jani

We propose an estimation method of the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on a univariate noncausal autoregressive model for the inflation rate. By construction, our approach avoids a number of problems related to the GMM estimation of the NKPC. We estimate the hybrid NKPC with quarterly U.S. data (1955:1-2010:3), and both expected future inflation and lagged inflation are found important in determining the inflation rate, with the former clearly dominating. Moreover, inflation persistence turns out to be intrinsic rather than inherited from a persistent driving process.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 29801.

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Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29801
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  1. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Does Labor's Share Drive Inflation?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 297-312, April.
  2. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2011. "GMM Estimation with Non‐causal Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 581-592, October.
  4. Argia M. Sbordone, 2007. "Inflation persistence: alternative interpretations and policy implications," Staff Reports 286, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Jeff Fuhrer, 2005. "Intrinsic and inherited inflation persistence," Working Papers 05-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  6. Lanne, Markku & Luoto, Jani & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2012. "Optimal forecasting of noncausal autoregressive time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 623-631.
  7. Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1167-1181, September.
  8. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  9. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
  10. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2008. "The New Keynesian Phillips curve : lessons from single-equation econometric estimation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 361-395.
  11. Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2010. "Noncausal autoregressions for economic time series," MPRA Paper 32943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2005. "Identifying the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1026, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2015. "Robustness of the Estimates of the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 44, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  14. Andrews, Beth & Davis, Richard A. & Jay Breidt, F., 2006. "Maximum likelihood estimation for all-pass time series models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(7), pages 1638-1659, August.
  15. Basistha, Arabinda & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "New measures of the output gap based on the forward-looking new Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 498-511, March.
  16. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "Bayesian Model Selection and Forecasting in Noncausal Autoregressive Models," MPRA Paper 23646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  18. Breid, F. Jay & Davis, Richard A. & Lh, Keh-Shin & Rosenblatt, Murray, 1991. "Maximum likelihood estimation for noncausal autoregressive processes," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 175-198, February.
  19. Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Modelling inflation dynamics: a critical review of recent research," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Andreas Beyer & Roger E. A. Farmer & Jér�me Henry & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2008. "Factor analysis in a model with rational expectations," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(2), pages 271-286, 07.
  21. Stephen Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2005. "Has the inflation process changed?," BIS Working Papers 185, Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  23. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "DSGE model-based estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 397-433.
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