IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v69y2023i7p4331-4352.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Benzoni

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60604)

  • Lorenzo Garlappi

    (Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia V6T 1Z2, Canada)

  • Robert Goldstein

    (Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota 55455; National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138)

Abstract

We derive a firm’s debt issuance policy when managers have an informational advantage over creditors and face debt restructuring costs. In our model, regardless of how poor their private signal is, managers of firms that can access the credit market avoid default by issuing new debt to service existing debt. Therefore, only bonds of firms that have exhausted their ability to borrow are subject to jump-to-default risk because of incomplete information and, in turn, command a jump-to-default risk premium. We document that our model captures many salient features of the corporate bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert Goldstein, 2023. "Incomplete Information, Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4331-4352, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:7:p:4331-4352
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4529
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    2. Gabriel Jiménez & Jose A. Lopez & Jesus Saurina, 2009. "Empirical Analysis of Corporate Credit Lines," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5069-5098, December.
    3. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2015. "On Bounding Credit-Event Risk Premia," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(9), pages 2608-2642.
    4. Anat R. Admati & Peter M. Demarzo & Martin F. Hellwig & Paul Pfleiderer, 2018. "The Leverage Ratchet Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 145-198, February.
    5. Ivo Welch, 2004. "Capital Structure and Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 106-131, February.
    6. Goldstein, Robert & Ju, Nengjiu & Leland, Hayne, 2001. "An EBIT-Based Model of Dynamic Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 483-512, October.
    7. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2007. "How Costly Is External Financing? Evidence from a Structural Estimation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1705-1745, August.
    8. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. "Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-625, July.
    9. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    10. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    11. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    12. Gregor Matvos, 2013. "Estimating the Benefits of Contractual Completeness," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(11), pages 2798-2844.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    14. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. "Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-1252, September.
    16. Ellul, Andrew & Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian T., 2011. "Regulatory pressure and fire sales in the corporate bond market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 596-620, September.
    17. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1997. "An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1287-1321, September.
    18. Nicolae Garleanu & Jeffrey Zwiebel, 2009. "Design and Renegotiation of Debt Covenants," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 749-781, February.
    19. Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Disclosures and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 105-133, January.
    20. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    21. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    22. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    23. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    24. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    25. Alexander S. Gorbenko, 2010. "Temporary versus Permanent Shocks: Explaining Corporate Financial Policies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2591-2647, July.
    26. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    27. Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev & Xiaofei Zhao, 2012. "A Market-Based Study of the Cost of Default," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 2959-2999.
    28. Lars Norden & Martin Weber, 2010. "Credit Line Usage, Checking Account Activity, and Default Risk of Bank Borrowers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3665-3699, October.
    29. Joost Driessen, 2005. "Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 165-195.
    30. Thomas Dangl & Josef Zechner, 2021. "Debt Maturity and the Dynamics of Leverage [Rollover risk and market freezes]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(12), pages 5796-5840.
    31. Giesecke, Kay, 2006. "Default and information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 2281-2303, November.
    32. Peter Feldhütter & Stephen M Schaefer, 2018. "The Myth of the Credit Spread Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(8), pages 2897-2942.
    33. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Prilmeier, Robert, 2017. "Why do loans contain covenants? Evidence from lending relationships," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 558-579.
    35. Schroth, Enrique & Suarez, Gustavo A. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2014. "Dynamic debt runs and financial fragility: Evidence from the 2007 ABCP crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 164-189.
    36. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-367, May.
    37. Peter M. Demarzo, 2019. "Presidential Address: Collateral and Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(4), pages 1587-1619, August.
    38. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Aggregate Dynamics of Capital Structure and Macroeconomic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(12), pages 4187-4241, December.
    39. Christopher A. Hennessy & Dmitry Livdan & Bruno Miranda, 2010. "Repeated Signaling and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1981-2023.
    40. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    41. Peter M. Demarzo & Zhiguo He, 2021. "Leverage Dynamics without Commitment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1195-1250, June.
    42. Choi, Jaewon & Hackbarth, Dirk & Zechner, Josef, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity profiles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 484-502.
    43. Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Credit Ratings and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1035-1072, June.
    44. Matthew T. Billett & Tao‐Hsien Dolly King & David C. Mauer, 2007. "Growth Opportunities and the Choice of Leverage, Debt Maturity, and Covenants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 697-730, April.
    45. Clark, Truman A & Weinstein, Mark I, 1983. "The Behavior of the Common Stock of Bankrupt Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(2), pages 489-504, May.
    46. James R. Brown & Matthew T. Gustafson & Ivan T. Ivanov, 2021. "Weathering Cash Flow Shocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1731-1772, August.
    47. Altinkilic, Oya & Hansen, Robert S, 2000. "Are There Economies of Scale in Underwriting Fees? Evidence of Rising External Financing Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 191-218.
    48. Marti G. Subrahmanyam & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2014. "Does the Tail Wag the Dog?: The Effect of Credit Default Swaps on Credit Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(10), pages 2927-2960.
    49. Long Chen & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2009. "On the Relation Between the Credit Spread Puzzle and the Equity Premium Puzzle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3367-3409, September.
    50. Dangl, Thomas & Zechner, Josef, 2004. "Credit risk and dynamic capital structure choice," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 183-204, April.
    51. Christopher L. Culp & Yoshio Nozawa & Pietro Veronesi, 2018. "Option-Based Credit Spreads," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 454-488, February.
    52. Warner, Jerold B, 1977. "Bankruptcy Costs: Some Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 337-347, May.
    53. Kisgen, Darren J., 2009. "Do Firms Target Credit Ratings or Leverage Levels?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1323-1344, December.
    54. repec:bla:jfinan:v:44:y:1989:i:1:p:19-40 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Long Chen & David A. Lesmond & Jason Wei, 2007. "Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 119-149, February.
    56. Zhou, Chunsheng, 2001. "The term structure of credit spreads with jump risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(11), pages 2015-2040, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Hwa-Sung, 2024. "Effects of incomplete information on risk management," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert S. Goldstein, 2019. "Asymmetric Information, Dynamic Debt Issuance, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Working Paper Series WP-2019-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Chen, Hui & Xu, Yu & Yang, Jun, 2021. "Systematic risk, debt maturity, and the term structure of credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(3), pages 770-799.
    3. Stephanie Heck, 2022. "Corporate bond yields and returns: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 36(2), pages 179-201, June.
    4. Murphy, Austin & Headley, Adrian, 2022. "An empirical evaluation of alternative fundamental models of credit spreads," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Lotfaliei, Babak, 2018. "The variance risk premium and capital structure," ESRB Working Paper Series 70, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Goldstein, Michael A. & Namin, Elmira Shekari, 2023. "Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Luca Benzoni & Robert S. Goldstein, 2015. "Estimating the Tax and Credit-Event Risk Components of Credit Spreads," Working Paper Series WP-2017-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Feldhütter, Peter & Schaefer, Stephen, 2023. "Debt dynamics and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 497-535.
    9. Benzoni, Luca & Garlappi, Lorenzo & Goldstein, Robert S. & Ying, Chao, 2022. "Debt dynamics with fixed issuance costs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 385-402.
    10. Niu, Huawei & Hua, Wei, 2019. "An endogenous structural credit risk model incorporating with moral hazard and rollover risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 47-59.
    11. Jing-Zhi Huang & Bibo Liu & Zhan Shi, 2023. "Determinants of Short-Term Corporate Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 539-579.
    12. Haque, Sharjil & Varghese, Richard, 2023. "Firms’ rollover risk, capital structure and unequal exposure to aggregate shocks," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Correia, Ricardo & Población, Javier, 2015. "A structural model with Explicit Distress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 112-130.
    15. Giesecke, Kay & Longstaff, Francis A. & Schaefer, Stephen & Strebulaev, Ilya, 2011. "Corporate bond default risk: A 150-year perspective," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 233-250.
    16. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Bai, Jennie & Goldstein, Robert S. & Yang, Fan, 2020. "Is the credit spread puzzle a myth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(2), pages 297-319.
    19. Perrakis, Stylianos & Zhong, Rui, 2015. "Credit spreads and state-dependent volatility: Theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 215-231.
    20. Luca Benzoni & Lorenzo Garlappi & Robert S. Goldstein & Julien Hugonnier & Chao Ying, 2020. "Optimal Debt Dynamics, Issuance Costs, and Commitment," Working Paper Series WP-2020-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    21. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:69:y:2023:i:7:p:4331-4352. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.