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The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There?

Author

Listed:
  • David Autor
  • David Cho
  • Leland D. Crane
  • Mita Goldar
  • Byron Lutz
  • Joshua K. Montes
  • William B. Peterman
  • David D. Ratner
  • Daniel Villar Vallenas
  • Ahu Yildirmaz

Abstract

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) provided small businesses with roughly $800 billion dollars in uncollateralized, low-interest loans during the pandemic, almost all of which will be forgiven. With 93 percent of small businesses ultimately receiving one or more loans, the PPP nearly saturated its market in just two months. We estimate that the program cumulatively preserved between 2 and 3 million job-years of employment over 14 months at a cost of $170K to $257K per job-year retained. These estimates imply that only 23 to 34 percent of PPP dollars went directly to workers who would otherwise have lost jobs; the balance flowed to business owners and shareholders, including creditors and suppliers of PPP-receiving firms. Program incidence was highly regressive, with about three-quarters of PPP funds accruing to the top quintile of households. This compares unfavorably to the other two major pandemic aid programs, enhanced UI benefits and Economic Impact Payments (i.e. stimulus checks). PPP’s breakneck scale-up, its high cost per job saved, and its regressive incidence have a common origin: PPP was essentially untargeted because the United States lacked the administrative infrastructure to do otherwise. The more targeted pandemic business aid programs deployed by other high-income countries exemplify what is feasible with better administrative systems. Building similar capacity in the U.S. would enable greatly improved targeting of either employment subsidies or business liquidity when the next pandemic or other large-scale economic emergency occurs, as it surely will.

Suggested Citation

  • David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua K. Montes & William B. Peterman & David D. Ratner & Daniel Villar Vallenas & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did it Go There?," NBER Working Papers 29669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29669
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    Cited by:

    1. Masayuki Morikawa, 2023. "Productivity and wages of firms using COVID‐19‐related support policies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 104(3), pages 202-213, May.
    2. Staples, Aaron J. & Deming, Kristopher & Malone, Trey & Carpenter, Craig W. & Weiler, Stephan, 2024. "Pouring the Paycheck Protection Program into craft beer: PPP employment effects in service-intensive industries," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    3. Granja, João & Makridis, Christos & Yannelis, Constantine & Zwick, Eric, 2022. "Did the paycheck protection program hit the target?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 725-761.
    4. Adermon, Adrian & Laun, Lisa & Lind, Patrik & Olsson, Martin & Sauermann, Jan & Sjögren , Anna, 2022. "Earnings losses and the role of the welfare state during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2022:20, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    5. Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas & Nunez Chaim, Gonzalo & Overman, Henry G., 2022. "The economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out scheme," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117979, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Larrimore, Jeff & Mortenson, Jacob & Splinter, David, 2023. "Earnings business cycles: The Covid recession, recovery, and policy response," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    7. Aaron Pacitti & Michael Cauvel, 2023. "Rent-Seeking Behavior and Economic Justice: A Classroom Exercise," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 88-103, January.
    8. Johnna Montgomerie, 2023. "COVID Keynesianism: locating inequality in the Anglo-American crisis response," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 16(1), pages 211-223.
    9. Aaron J. Staples & Thomas P. Krumel, 2023. "The Paycheck Protection Program and small business performance: Evidence from craft breweries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 931-956, October.
    10. Autor, David & Cho, David & Crane, Leland D. & Goldar, Mita & Lutz, Byron & Montes, Joshua & Peterman, William B. & Ratner, David & Villar, Daniel & Yildirmaz, Ahu, 2022. "An evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program using administrative payroll microdata," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    11. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    12. Thomas Blanchet & Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman, 2022. "Real-Time Inequality," NBER Working Papers 30229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Salomé Baslandze & Camelia Minoiu & Veronika Penciakova & Jonathan L. Willis, 2023. "Do Credit Supply Shocks Constrain Employment Growth of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises?," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2023(5), September.
    14. Herzog-Stein, Alexander & Nüß, Patrick & Peede, Lennert & Stein, Ulrike, 2022. "Germany and the United States in coronavirus distress: internal versus external labour market flexibility," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 56, pages 1-11.
    15. Alessandro Di Nola & Leo Kaas & Haomin Wang, 2023. "Rescue policies for small businesses in the Covid-19 recession," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 579-603, December.
    16. Jeff Borland & Jennifer Hunt, 2023. "JobKeeper: An Initial Assessment," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(1), pages 109-123, March.
    17. Stefano Filomeni, 2024. "The impact of the Paycheck Protection Program on the risk-taking behaviour of US banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1329-1353, May.
    18. Marvin Phaup, 2022. "Federal budget process reform: An economics perspective, with imperfect, “Human” decision‐makers," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 114-130, September.
    19. Lily Davies & Mark Kattenberg & Benedikt Vogt, 2023. "Predicting Firm Exits with Machine Learning: Implications for Selection into COVID-19 Support and Productivity Growth," CPB Discussion Paper 444, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Doniger, Cynthia L. & Kay, Benjamin, 2023. "Long-lived employment effects of delays in emergency financing for small businesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 78-91.
    21. Timothy Watson & Paul Buckingham, 2023. "Australian Government COVID‐19 Business Supports," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 56(1), pages 124-140, March.
    22. Wei Cui & Jeffrey Hicks & Max Norton, 2022. "How well-targeted are payroll tax cuts as a response to COVID-19? evidence from China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(5), pages 1321-1347, October.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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