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An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata

Author

Listed:
  • David Autor
  • David Cho
  • Leland D. Crane
  • Mita Goldar
  • Byron Lutz
  • Joshua K. Montes
  • William B. Peterman
  • David D. Ratner
  • Daniel Villar Vallenas
  • Ahu Yildirmaz

Abstract

The Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), a principal element of the fiscal stimulus enacted by Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic, aimed to assist small businesses to maintain employment and wages during the crisis. We use high-frequency administrative payroll data from ADP--one of the world’s largest payroll processing firms--to estimate the causal effect of the PPP on the evolution of employment at PPP-eligible firms relative to PPP-ineligible firms, where eligibility is determined by industry-specific firm-size cutoffs. We estimate that the PPP boosted employment at eligible firms by between 2 percent to 5 percent at its peak in mid-2020, with this effect waning to 0 to 3 percent throughout the remainder of the year. Employers retained an estimated additional 3.6 million jobs due to the PPP as of mid-May 2020, and 1.4 million jobs at the end of 2020. The implied cost per year of employment retained was $169,000 to $258,000, equal to 3.4 to 5.2 times median earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua K. Montes & William B. Peterman & David D. Ratner & Daniel Villar Vallenas & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "An Evaluation of the Paycheck Protection Program Using Administrative Payroll Microdata," NBER Working Papers 29972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29972
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    12. David Autor & David Cho & Leland D. Crane & Mita Goldar & Byron Lutz & Joshua Montes & William B. Peterman & David Ratner & Daniel Villar & Ahu Yildirmaz, 2022. "The $800 Billion Paycheck Protection Program: Where Did the Money Go and Why Did It Go There?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 55-80, Spring.
    13. Alexander W. Bartik & Marianne Bertrand & Zoe Cullen & Edward L. Glaeser & Michael Luca & Christopher Stanton, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 117(30), pages 17656-17666, July.
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    15. repec:aei:rpaper:1008582843 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Glenn Hubbard & Michael R. Strain, 2020. "Has the Paycheck Protection Program Succeeded?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(3 (Fall)), pages 335-390.
    2. Peter Ganong & Fiona Greig & Max Liebeskind & Pascal Noel & Daniel Sullivan & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Spending and Job Search Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data," Working Papers 2021-19, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    3. Boeri, Tito & Cahuc, Pierre, 2023. "Labor market insurance policies in the twenty-first century," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 123549, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Konstantins Benkovskis & Olegs Tkacevs & Karlis Vilerts, 2024. "Understanding How Job Retention Schemes Reshape the Within-Occupation Skill Profile of Employees within Firms," Working Papers 2024/02, Latvijas Banka.
    5. Caroline Fyfe & Dave Maré & Phoebe Taptiklis, 2023. "COVID-19 Wage Subsidy: Outcome evaluation - Value for Money," Working Papers 23_04, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    6. Luca Casolaro & Francesco Suppressa, 2023. "Credit during the pandemics: the case of Tuscany," Discussion Papers 2023/296, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Staples, Aaron J. & Deming, Kristopher & Malone, Trey & Carpenter, Craig W. & Weiler, Stephan, 2024. "Pouring the Paycheck Protection Program into craft beer: PPP employment effects in service-intensive industries," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    8. Sriya Anbil & Mark A. Carlson & Mary-Frances Styczynski, 2021. "The Effect of the PPPLF on PPP Lending by Commercial Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Timothy Köhler & Haroon Bhorat & Robert Hill, 2023. "The effect of wage subsidies on job retention in a developing country: Evidence from South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2023-114, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Ryan A. Decker & Robert J. Kurtzman & Byron F. Lutz & Christopher J. Nekarda, 2021. "Across the Universe: Policy Support for Employment and Revenue in the Pandemic Recession," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 267-271, May.
    11. Higashi, Yudai & Sasaki, Masaru, 2023. "Did COVID-19 Deteriorate Mismatch in the Japanese Labor Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 15917, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Anbil, Sriya & Carlson, Mark & Styczynski, Mary-Frances, 2023. "The effect of the Federal Reserve’s lending facility on PPP lending by commercial banks," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    13. Cahuc, Pierre, 2024. "The Micro and Macro Economics of Short-Time Work," IZA Discussion Papers 17111, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Ana Claudia Sant'Anna & Kevin N. Kim & Iryna Demko, 2024. "Limits to capital: Assessing the role of race on the Paycheck Protection Program for African American farmers in America," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 46(1), pages 217-233, March.
    15. Aaron J. Staples & Thomas P. Krumel, 2023. "The Paycheck Protection Program and small business performance: Evidence from craft breweries," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 931-956, October.
    16. Hernandez, Carlos Ospino & Rigolini, Jamele & Coll-Black, Sarah & Oviedo, Ana Maria, 2023. "Protecting Who? Optimal Social Protection Responses to Shocks with Limited Information," IZA Policy Papers 205, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Doniger, Cynthia L. & Kay, Benjamin, 2023. "Long-lived employment effects of delays in emergency financing for small businesses," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 78-91.
    18. Abe C. Dunn & Eric English & Kyle K. Hood & Lowell Mason & Brian Quistorff, 2024. "Expanding the Frontier of Economic Statistics Using Big Data: A Case Study of Regional Employment," BEA Papers 0128, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    19. Bertoni, Fabio & Colombo, Massimo G. & Quas, Anita, 2023. "The long-term effects of loan guarantees on SME performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Daniel G. Neely & Gregory D. Saxton & Paul A. Wong, 2023. "Nonprofit Organizations’ Financial Obligations and the Paycheck Protection Program," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4353-4361, July.
    21. Théo Nicolas & Stefano Ungaro & Éric Vansteenberghe, 2023. "Public-Guaranteed Loans, Bank Risk-Taking and Regulatory Capital Windfall [Prêts garantis par l'État, prise de risque bancaire et effet d'aubaine sur le capital réglementaire]," Débats économiques et financiers 41, Banque de France.
    22. Contreras, Salvador & Ghosh, Amit & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2023. "The effect of bank failures on small business loans and income inequality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    23. Sariyer, Gorkem & Kahraman, Serpil & Sözen, Mert Erkan & Ataman, Mustafa Gokalp, 2023. "Fiscal responses to COVID-19 outbreak for healthy economies: Modelling with big data analytics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 191-198.
    24. Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati, 2021. "Fiscal Relief during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 106(no.2), pages 5-24, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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