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Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs

Author

Listed:
  • Zhuan Pei

    (Cornell University and IZA)

  • David S. Lee

    (Princeton University and NBER)

  • David Card

    (UC Berkeley, NBER and IZA)

  • Andrea Weber

    (Central European University and IZA)

Abstract

It has become standard practice to use local linear regressions in regression discontinuity designs. This paper highlights that the same theoretical arguments used to justify local linear regression suggest that alternative local polynomials could be preferred. We show in simulations that the local linear estimator is often dominated by alternative polynomial specifications. Additionally, we provide guidance on the selection of the polynomial order. The Monte Carlo evidence shows that the order-selection procedure (which is also readily adapted to fuzzy regression discontinuity and regression kink designs) performs well, particularly with large sample sizes typically found in empirical applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhuan Pei & David S. Lee & David Card & Andrea Weber, 2018. "Local Polynomial Order in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Working Papers 622, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:indrel:622
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David Card & David S. Lee & Zhuan Pei & Andrea Weber, 2015. "Inference on Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83, pages 2453-2483, November.
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    3. David E. Card & David S. Lee & Zhuan Pei & Andrea Weber, 2012. "Nonlinear Policy Rules and the Identification and Estimation of Causal Effects in a Generalized Regression Kink Design," NRN working papers 2012-14, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    4. Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2007. "Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 159-208.
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    7. Lee, David S., 2008. "Randomized experiments from non-random selection in U.S. House elections," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 675-697, February.
    8. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    9. Hahn, Jinyong & Todd, Petra & Van der Klaauw, Wilbert, 2001. "Identification and Estimation of Treatment Effects with a Regression-Discontinuity Design," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(1), pages 201-209, January.
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    Cited by:

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    12. Leganza, Jonathan M., 2024. "The effect of required minimum distributions on intergenerational transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    13. Ari Hyytinen & Jaakko Meriläinen & Tuukka Saarimaa & Otto Toivanen & Janne Tukiainen, 2018. "When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1019-1051, July.
    14. Ciprian Domnisoru, 2021. "Heterogeneity across Families in the Impact of Compulsory Schooling Laws," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(350), pages 399-429, April.
    15. Travis A. Smith & Pourya Valizadeh, 2024. "Aging out of WIC and child nutrition: Evidence from a regression discontinuity design," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(2), pages 904-924, March.
    16. Junquera, Álvaro F., 2024. "More money, more effect? Employment effects of job search programs in Veneto," SocArXiv rjshu, Center for Open Science.
    17. Diana Bonfim & Cláudia Custódio, 2021. "The sensitivity of SME’s investment and employment to the cost of debt financing," Working Papers w202115, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    18. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2023. "Carbon pricing and emissions: Causal effects of Britain's carbon tax," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    19. Cappelletti, Giuseppe & Ponte Marques, Aurea & Salleo, Carmelo & Martín, Diego Vila, 2020. "How do banking groups react to macroprudential policies? Cross-border spillover effects of higher capital buffers on lending, risk-taking and internal markets," Working Paper Series 2497, European Central Bank.
    20. Pauline Leung, 2021. "State Responses to Federal Matching Grants: The Case of Medicaid," Working Papers 647, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regression Discontinuity Design; Regression Kink Design; Local Polynomial Estimation; Polynomial Order;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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