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Optimal Model Selection in RDD and Related Settings Using Placebo Zones

Author

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  • Kettlewell, Nathan

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

  • Siminski, Peter

    (University of Technology, Sydney)

Abstract

We propose a new model-selection algorithm for Regression Discontinuity Design, Regression Kink Design, and related IV estimators. Candidate models are assessed within a 'placebo zone' of the running variable, where the true effects are known to be zero. The approach yields an optimal combination of bandwidth, polynomial, and any other choice parameters. It can also inform choices between classes of models (e.g. RDD versus cohort-IV) and any other choices, such as covariates, kernel, or other weights. We use the approach to evaluate changes in Minimum Supervised Driving Hours in the Australian state of New South Wales. We also re-evaluate evidence on the effects of Head Start and Minimum Legal Drinking Age. We conclude with practical advice for researchers, including implications of treatment effect heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Kettlewell, Nathan & Siminski, Peter, 2020. "Optimal Model Selection in RDD and Related Settings Using Placebo Zones," IZA Discussion Papers 13639, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13639
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathan Kettlewell & Yuting Zhang, 2024. "Age penalties and take‐up of private health insurance," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 636-651, April.
    2. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2024. "Financial incentives and private health insurance demand on the extensive and intensive margins," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    3. Kettlewell, Nathan & Zhang, Yuting, 2023. "Financial Incentives and Private Health Insurance Demand on the Extensive and Intensive Margins," IZA Discussion Papers 16248, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    regression discontinuity; regression kink; graduated driver licensing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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