IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/idn/wpaper/wp072015.html

Selecting Early Warning Indicator To Identify Corporate Sector Distress: Efforts To Strengthen Crisis Prevention

Author

Listed:
  • Arlyana Abubakar

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Rieska Indah Astuti

    (Bank Indonesia)

  • Rini Oktapiani

Abstract

This research aims to develop early warning indicator (EWI) which can provide earlier signal on financial distress in corporate sector. Therefore, effort to prevent deeper eterioration can be anticipated early and financial system stability remains resilient. In the first phase, based on corporate financial report, indicator candidates are grouped into four categories: liquidity indicator, solvency indicator, profitability indicator, and activity indicator. Indicator selected as EWI is the one which can predict corporate distress event in 2009 Q1 with the least statistical error. Statictis evaluation result shows that in aggregate indicators debt to equity ratio (DER), current ratio (CR), quick ratio(QR), debt to asset ratio (DAR), solvability ratio (SR), and debt service ratio (DSR) can give signal in a year prior to the distress event in 2009 Q1, so that the indicators can become EWI for corporate financial distress.

Suggested Citation

  • Arlyana Abubakar & Rieska Indah Astuti & Rini Oktapiani, 2015. "Selecting Early Warning Indicator To Identify Corporate Sector Distress: Efforts To Strengthen Crisis Prevention," Working Papers WP/7/2015, Bank Indonesia.
    • Handle: RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp072015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://publication-bi.org/repec/idn/wpaper/WP072015.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petr Jakubík & Petr Teplý, 2011. "The JT Index as an Indicator of Financial Stability of Corporate Sector," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(2), pages 157-176.
    2. Paul Asquith & Robert Gertner & David Scharfstein, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 625-658.
    3. Mr. Nicolas R Blancher & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 2013/168, International Monetary Fund.
    4. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1443-1493 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Gabriel Jiminez & Carlos Trucharte, 2010. "Countercyclical capital buffers: exploring options," BIS Working Papers 317, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Mr. Brad Setser & Nouriel Roubini & Mr. Christian Keller & Mr. Mark Allen & Mr. Christoph B. Rosenberg, 2002. "A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2002/210, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Ms. Yingbin Xiao & Mr. Dale F Gray & Cheng Hoon Lim & Michael T. Gapen, 2004. "The Contingent Claims Approach to Corporate Vulnerability Analysis: Estimating Default Risk and Economy-Wide Risk Transfer," IMF Working Papers 2004/121, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2011. "Anchoring Countercyclical Capital Buffers: The role of Credit Aggregates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(4), pages 189-240, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arlyana Abubakar & Rieska Indah Astuti & Rini Oktapiani, 2018. "Selection Of Early Warning Indicator To Identify Distress In The Corporate Sector: Crisis Prevention Strengthening Efforts," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 20(3), pages 343-374, January.
    2. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    3. Basten, Christhoph & Koch, Cathérine, 2015. "Higher Bank Capital Requirements and Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCB)," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Salim DEHMEJ & Mohammed MIKOU, 2020. "Indice agrégé de stabilité financière au Maroc," Document de travail 2020-2, Bank Al-Maghrib, Département de la Recherche.
    5. Rodrigo Lara Pinto & Gilneu Francisco Astolfi Vivan, 2013. "Converting the NPL Ratio into a Comparable Long Term Metric," Working Papers Series 309, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    8. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    9. Алдашев А. // Aldashev А. & Баткеев Б. // Batkeyev В., 2024. "Задолженность домохозяйств, гетерогенность и финансовая стабильность на примере Казахстана // Household debt, heterogeneity and financial stability: Evidence from Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 90-91.
    10. Adam Geršl & Thomas Mitterling, 2021. "Forecast-Augmented Credit-to-GDP Gap as an Early Warning Indicator of Banking Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 323-351, December.
    11. Kauko, Karlo, 2012. "Triggers for countercyclical capital buffers," MPRA Paper 85692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Jon Danielsson & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2018. "Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2774-2805.
    13. Mr. G. Terrier & Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos & Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Man-Keung Tang & Miss M, 2011. "Policy Instruments to Lean Against the Wind in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2011/159, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    15. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:667:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Andrew Sheng & Allen Ng, 2008. "The External Wealth of China: An Investigation from the International Balance Sheet Perspective," Working Papers 012008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    17. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Рысбаева Ә. Б. // Rysbayeva A.B. & Ханет А. Б. // Khanet А. B., 2024. "Фискальные мультипликаторы в Казахстане // Fiscal Multipliers in Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 24-44.
    19. Ыбраев Ж. // Ybrayev Zh., 2024. "Макроэкономическая активность и контр-циклический буфер капитала в Казахстане // Macroeconomic Activity and Countercyclical Capital Buffer in Kazakhstan," Economic Review(National Bank of Kazakhstan), National Bank of Kazakhstan, issue 2 Special, pages 92-100.
    20. Hans Genberg & Michael Zamorski, 2015. "Implementing Macroprudential Policies: Challenges, Pitfalls and Way Forward," Working Papers wp09, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    21. Markus Behn & Carsten Detken & Tuomas Peltonen & Willem Schudel, 2017. "Predicting Vulnerabilities in the EU Banking Sector: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(4), pages 147-189, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp072015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shinta Fitrianti or Jimmy Kathon (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bigovid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.