IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ses/arsjes/2009-iii-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Up-Coming Crisis and the Banking Sector in the Baltic States

Author

Listed:
  • Mejra Festić
  • Sebastijan Repina
  • Alenka Kavkler

Abstract

We tested for the significance of macroeconomic variables that condition nonperforming loan (NPL) ratios. The hypothesis of procyclicality between economic activity and improving NPL ratio in the Baltic States was proved. The increased economic activity improved the NPL ratio. Due to a high share of loans denominated in a foreign currency and the fact of productivity gains in the tradable sector, the appreciation of the real exchange rate contributed to an improvement in NPL ratio. The procyclicality of banking sector performance and high economic activities growth could be a signal of an economy overheating in the Baltics.

Suggested Citation

  • Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The Up-Coming Crisis and the Banking Sector in the Baltic States," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(III), pages 269-291, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-iii-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sjes.ch/papers/2009-III-2.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    2. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
    3. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    4. Kadri Männasoo & David G. Mayes, 2006. "Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets," Chapters, in: Klaus Liebscher & Josef Christl & Peter Mooslechner & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald (ed.), Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 21, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Esaka, Taro, 2003. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity between Japanese cities, 1960-1998: disaggregated price data," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 233-244, April.
    6. Vesala, Jukka & Poloni, Paolo & Mörttinen, Leena & Sandars, Patrick, 2005. "Analysing banking sector conditions - How to use macro-prudential indicators," Occasional Paper Series 26, European Central Bank.
    7. Iwaisako, Tokuo & 祝迫, 得夫 & イワイサコ, トクオ, 2004. "Stock Index Autocorrelation and Cross-autocorrelations of Size-sorted Portfolios in the Japanese Market," Discussion Paper Series a448, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    8. Moffatt, P. G. & Salies, E., 2003. "A note on the modelling of hyper-inflations," Working Papers 03/02, Department of Economics, City University London.
    9. Evens SALIES & Peter MOFFATT, 2004. "A note on the modelling of hyper-inflations," Econometrics 0406002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dobromił Serwa, 2013. "Measuring Non-Performing Loans During (and After) Credit Booms," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 5(3), pages 163-183, September.
    2. Grace Ofori-Abebrese & Robert Becker Pickson & Eric Opare, 2016. "The Effect of Bank Specific Factors on Loan Performance of HFC Bank in Ghana," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(7), pages 185-185, July.
    3. Shuffield Seyram Asafo, 2018. "The Macro-economy and Non-Performing Loans in Ghana: A BVAR approach," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 11(3), pages 65-72, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.
    2. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    3. Alejandro Gaytan & Romain Ranciere, 2004. "Wealth, Financial Intermediation and Growth," Working Papers 191, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Alejandro Gaytan & Romain Rancière, 2001. "Banks, liquidity crises and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 853, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 2003.
    5. Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña & Pilar Gómez Fernández-Aguado, 2016. "Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1172-1193, August.
    6. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven, 2012. "Credit information sharing and banking crises: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 788-800.
    7. Daley, J. & Matthews, K. & Whitfield, K., 2008. "Too-big-to-fail: Bank failure and banking policy in Jamaica," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 290-303, July.
    8. Ang, James B., 2011. "Financial development, liberalization and technological deepening," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 688-701, June.
    9. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    10. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Albert, Jose Ramon & Song, Lei Lei, 2010. "A Macroprudential Framework for Monitoring and Examining Financial Soundness," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 43, Asian Development Bank.
    11. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann, 2008. "House prices, money, credit, and the macroeconomy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 24(1), pages 180-205, spring.
    12. Kotaro Tsuru, 2000. "Finance and Growth: Some Theoretical Considerations and a Review of the Empirical Literature," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 228, OECD Publishing.
    13. Samatas, Andreas & Makrominas, Michalis & Moro, Andrea, 2019. "Financial intermediation, capital composition and income stagnation: The case of Europe," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 273-289.
    14. Büyükkarabacak, Berrak & Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The role of household and business credit in banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1247-1256, June.
    15. Berrak Büyükkarabacak & Stefan Krause, 2009. "Studying The Effects Of Household And Firm Credit On The Trade Balance: The Composition Of Funds Matters," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(4), pages 653-666, October.
    16. Ductor, Lorenzo & Grechyna, Daryna, 2015. "Financial development, real sector, and economic growth," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 393-405.
    17. Carton, Christine & Ronquillo, Cely, 2008. "Determinantes del crecimiento económico e intermediación bancaria: un análisis empírico para países latinoamericanos [Determinants of economic growth and bank intermediation: empirical analysis for," MPRA Paper 15514, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2008.
    18. Renata Karkowska, 2015. "The role of investment banking in systemic risk profiles. Evidence from a panel of EU banking sectors," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    19. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "The impact of capital on lending in publicly-traded and privately- held banks in the EU," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 72015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    20. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclicality; non-performing loans; systemic risk; asset quality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:2009-iii-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kurt Schmidheiny (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgvssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.