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Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets


  • Kadri Männasoo


  • David G Mayes



This paper considers the joint role of macro-economic and bankspecific factors in explaining the occurrence of banking problems in the twenty-one Central and East European emerging markets over the recent decade. Using data at the individual bank level we show, using a logit model, that the macroeconomic factors play a central role in determining banking sector instability in the early stages of difficulty, while the bankspecific factors are more important in the later stages and gain more weight as the banking sector develops and the institutional framework becomes mature.

Suggested Citation

  • Kadri Männasoo & David G Mayes, 2005. "Investigating the Early Signals of Banking Sector Vulnerabilities in Central and East European Emerging Markets," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2005.
  • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2005-08

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hutchison, Michael & McDill, Kathleen, 1999. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 155-180, September.
    2. Brenda González-Hermosillo & Ceyla Pazarbaşioğlu & Robert Billings, 1997. "Determinants of Banking System Fragility: A Case Study of Mexico," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(3), pages 295-314, September.
    3. Demirguc-Kent, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1998. "Financial liberalization and financial fragility," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1917, The World Bank.
    4. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, 1999. "Determinants of Ex-Ante Banking System Distress; A Macro-Micro Empirical Exploration of Some Recent Episodes," IMF Working Papers 99/33, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Gary Chamberlain, 1980. "Analysis of Covariance with Qualitative Data," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 225-238.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexis Derviz & JiÅí Podpiera, 2008. "Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 117-130, January.
    2. Malgorzata Olszak & Mateusz Pipien & Iwona Kowalska & Sylwia Roszkowska, 2015. "The impact of capital on lending in publicly-traded and privately- held banks in the EU," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 72015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.
    3. Alexis Derviz & JiÅí Podpiera, 2008. "Predicting Bank CAMELS and S&P Ratings: The Case of the Czech Republic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 44(1), pages 117-130, January.
    4. Renata Karkowska, 2015. "The role of investment banking in systemic risk profiles. Evidence from a panel of EU banking sectors," Faculty of Management Working Paper Series 22015, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management.

    More about this item


    banking sector vulnerability; banking crises; early warning indicators; Central and Eastern Europe;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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