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Modeling Credit Risk through the Austrian Business Cycle: An Update of the OeNB Model

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Boss

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Martin Fenz

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Johannes Pann

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

  • Claus Puhr

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Financial Markets Analysis and Surveillance Division)

  • Martin Schneider

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Divison)

  • Eva Ubl

    () (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Financial Markets Analysis and Surveillance Division)

Abstract

In quantitative financial stability analysis, the link between the macroeconomic environment and credit risk is of particular importance when assessing the risk hidden in loan portfolios. Macroeconomic stress testing, in particular, which aims at measuring the impact of an economic crisis on individual banks or on the entire financial system, depends on means to quantitatively assess this link. Hence, the objective of this paper is to provide a methodological update of the OeNB’s previous credit risk model that improves the capture of the relation between macroeconomic variables and probabilities of default for the main Austrian corporate sectors. In addition to the standard model based on individual macroeconomic variables, the paper explores solutions to two important challenges: first, the challenge related to the exploitation of potential information inherent in a larger macroeconomic data set and second, the problem that accounts for potential nonlinearity in the relation between credit and business cycles. The first issue is addressed via a regression model based on a principal components analysis that takes in a wider range of macroeconomic variables than commonly practiced. The second issue is addressed via a threshold approach. This paper presents the estimation results for the three different models and discusses them on the basis of an illustrative example.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Boss & Martin Fenz & Johannes Pann & Claus Puhr & Martin Schneider & Eva Ubl, 2009. "Modeling Credit Risk through the Austrian Business Cycle: An Update of the OeNB Model," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 17, pages 85-101.
  • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfs:y:2009:i:17:b:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ozili, PK, 2015. "How Bank Managers Anticipate Non-Performing Loans. Evidence from Europe, US, Asia and Africa," MPRA Paper 63681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Isaev, Mirolim & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of different categories of non-performing financing in Islamic banks: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 79719, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zuzana Fungacova & Petr Jakubik, 2013. "Bank Stress Tests as an Information Device for Emerging Markets: The Case of Russia," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 87-105, March.
    4. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Vouldis, Angelos T. & Metaxas, Vasilios L., 2012. "Macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of non-performing loans in Greece: A comparative study of mortgage, business and consumer loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1012-1027.
    5. Aleš Melecký & Martin Melecký & Monika Šulganová, 2015. "Úvěry v selhání a makroekonomika: modelování systémového kreditního rizika v České republice
      [Non-Performing Loans and The Macroeconomy: Modeling the Systemic Credit Risk in the Czech Republic]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(8), pages 921-947.
    6. Kovacs Ildiko & Karsai Zoltan-Krisztian & Suveg Orsolya & Joita Nicoleta, 2011. "The Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables And Romanian Corporate Default Rates Between 2002-2008," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 206-213, July.
    7. Sergio Edwin Torrico Salamanca, 2014. "Macro credit scoring as a proposal for quantifying credit risk," Investigación & Desarrollo 0814, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Nov 2014.
    8. Bogdan-Gabriel MOINESCU, 2012. "Determinants Of Nonperforming Loans In Central And Eastern European Countries: Macroeconomic Indicators And Credit Discipline," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 47-58, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; credit cycle; financial stability; stress testing;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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