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Estimating probabilities of default for German savings banks and credit cooperatives

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  • Daniel Porath

Abstract

Savings banks and cooperative banks are important players in the German financial market. However, we know very little about their default risk, because these banks usually resolve financial distress within their own organizations, which means that outsiders cannot observe defaults. In this paper I use a new dataset that contains information about financial distress and financial strength of all German savings banks and cooperative banks. The Deutsche Bundesbank has gathered the data for microprudential supervision. Thus, the data have never before been exploited for statistical risk assessment. I use the data to identify the main drivers of savings banks’ and cooperative banks’ risk and to detect structural differences between the two groups. To do so, I estimate a default prediction model. I also analyze the impact of macroeconomic information for forecasting banks’ defaults. Recent findings for the U.S. have cast some doubt on the usefulness of macroeconomic information for banks’ risk assessment. Contrary to recent literature, I find that macroeconomic information significantly improves default forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Porath, 2006. "Estimating probabilities of default for German savings banks and credit cooperatives," Schmalenbach Business Review (sbr), LMU Munich School of Management, vol. 58(3), pages 214-233, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:sbr:abstra:v:58:y:2006:i:3:p:214-233
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kick, Thomas & Prieto, Esteban, 2013. "Bank risk taking and competition: Evidence from regional banking markets," Discussion Papers 30/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Fabian Schupp & Leonid Silbermann, 2017. "The Role of Structural Funding for Stability in the German Banking Sector," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201717, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    3. De Graeve, Ferre & Kick, Thomas, 2008. "Monetary policy and bank distress: an integrated micro-macro approach," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    4. Stolz, Stéphanie & Wedow, Michael, 2011. "Banks' regulatory capital buffer and the business cycle: Evidence for Germany," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 98-110, June.
    5. Pierluigi Bologna, 2015. "Structural Funding and Bank Failures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 81-113, February.
    6. Schupp, Fabian & Silbermann, Leonid, 2017. "The Role of Structural Funding for Stability in the German Banking Sector," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168166, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Kick, Thomas & Nehring, Inge & Schertler, Andrea, 2017. "Do all new brooms sweep clean? Evidence for outside bank appointments," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 135-151.
    8. Ruprecht, Benedikt & Entrop, Oliver & Kick, Thomas & Wilkens, Marco, 2013. "Market timing, maturity mismatch, and risk management: Evidence from the banking industry," Discussion Papers 56/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Ehab Zaki & Rahim Bah & Ananth Rao, 2011. "Assessing probabilities of financial distress of banks in UAE," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 304-320, June.
    10. Koetter, M. & Bos, J.W.B. & Heid, F. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M. & Porath, D., 2007. "Accounting for distress in bank mergers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3200-3217, October.
    11. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel, 2014. "Bank distress prediction: Empirical evidence from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 126-147.
    12. Koetter, Michael, 2006. "The stability of efficiency rankings when risk-preferences and objectives are different," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2006,08, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    13. De Graeve, F. & Kick, T. & Koetter, M., 2008. "Monetary policy and financial (in)stability: An integrated micro-macro approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-231, September.
    14. Kick, Thomas & Koetter, Michael, 2007. "Slippery slopes of stress: Ordered failure events in German banking," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 132-148, July.
    15. Vasiliki MAKRI & Konstantinos PAPADATOS, 2016. "Determinants Of Loan Quality: Lessons From Greek Cooperative Banks," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 17, pages 115-140, June.
    16. Craig, Ben & Koetter, Michael & Krüger, Ulrich, 2014. "Interbank lending and distress: Observables, unobservables, and network structure," Discussion Papers 18/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Sven Bornemann & Susanne Homölle & Carsten Hubensack & Thomas Kick & Andreas Pfingsten, 2014. "Visible Reserves in Banks – Determinants of Initial Creation, Usage and Contribution to Bank Stability," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5-6), pages 507-544, June.
    18. Bos, J.W.B. & Koetter, M. & Kolari, J.W. & Kool, C.J.M., 2009. "Effects of heterogeneity on bank efficiency scores," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 251-261, May.
    19. Massimo Libertucci & Francesco Piersante, 2012. "Start-up banks� default and the role of capital," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 890, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    20. Schupp, Fabian & Silbermann, Leonid, 2017. "The role of structural funding for stability in the German banking sector," Discussion Papers 03/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis, 2016. "Freeing Greece from capital controls: Were the restrictions enforced in time?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 196-213.
    22. Kick, Thomas & Pfingsten, Andreas, 2011. "The importance of qualitative risk assessment in banking supervision before and during the crisis," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2011,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    23. Koetter, Michael & Poghosyan, Tigran, 2008. "The implications of latent technology regimes for competition and efficiency in banking," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,15, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    24. Koetter, Michael, 2013. "Market structure and competition in German banking: Modules I and IV," Working Papers 06/2013, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Failure; Default Probability; Panel Binary Response Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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