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The Impact of Population Ageing on Technological Progress and TFP Growth, with Application to United States: 1950-2050

Author

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  • Izmirlioglu, Yusuf

Abstract

I examine the effect of age-distribution of the society on economic growth through technological progress. I build a multisector economy model that involves population pyramid. I characterize the steady-state of the model for low and high population growth rate. Higher population growth rate yields faster TFP and output growth in the long-run. I analyze dynamic behavior of the economy. I calibrate the model for United States, 1950-2000 and using the estimated parameters I make predictions about the impact of population ageing on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Izmirlioglu, Yusuf, 2008. "The Impact of Population Ageing on Technological Progress and TFP Growth, with Application to United States: 1950-2050," MPRA Paper 24687, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24687
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24687/1/MPRA_paper_24687.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. d'Albis, Hippolyte, 2007. "Demographic structure and capital accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 411-434, January.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    4. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Majiwa, Eucabeth Bosibori Opande & Lee, Boon & Wilson, Clevo, 2015. "Multi-lateral multi-output measurement of productivity: the case of African agriculture," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212769, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Ageing; Demographic Transition; TFP Growth; Technological Progress; Economic Growth Forecast; United States;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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