PAYG pensions and fertility drop: some (pleasant) arithmetic
This paper explores whether the common belief that the currently observed fertility drop is a threat (or, conversely, the invoked fertility recovery is beneficial) for PAYG pensions is really always validated by the basic accounting of the PAYG pension budget. It is shown, through a simple arithmetic, that, rather surprisingly, in the long run a fertility drop may be beneficial, while, conversely, a fertility recovery may be harmful for pensions, under rather realistic conditions as regards both fertility changes and time costs of childrearing. Furthermore, this result also holds a fortiori in the short run.
|Date of creation:||01 Sep 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +39 050 22 16 466
Fax: +39 050 22 16 384
Web page: http://www.ec.unipi.it
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philippe Weil, 2008.
"Overlapping generations: the first jubilee,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/13430, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
- Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "Increasing PAYG pension benefits and reducing contribution rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 81-84, May.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2011. "Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(3), pages 09-17, December.
- Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
- Blake, David, 2000. "Does It Matter What Type of Pension Scheme You Have?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages F46-81, February.
- Tito Boeri & Axel Börsch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2001. "Would you like to shrink the welfare state? A survey of European citizens," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 7-50, 04.
- Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
- David Blake, 2008. "What is a Promise from the Government Worth? Quantifying Political Risk in State and Personal Pension Schemes in the United Kingdom," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(298), pages 342-361, 05.
- Alessandro Cigno & Martin Werding, 2007. "Children and Pensions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033690, June.
- J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Paola Profeta, 2007.
"The Redistributive Design of Social Security Systems,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(520), pages 686-712, 04.
- J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Paola Profeta, 2007. "The Redistributive Design of Social Security Systems," Working Papers 2007-07, FEDEA.
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2013. "Introduction: relaunching Europe: problems, reform strategies and future options," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(3), pages 08-13, October.
- Charles I. Jones, 2003. "Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2003.
"Pensions and the path to gerontocracy in Germany,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 153-158, March.
- Andreas Wagener, 2001.
"On Intergenerational Risk Sharing within Social Security Schemes,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
499, CESifo Group Munich.
- Wagener, Andreas, 2004. "On intergenerational risk sharing within social security schemes," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 181-206, March.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
- Andreas Wagener, 2003. "Pensions as a portfolio problem: fixed contribution rates vs. fixed replacement rates reconsidered," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 111-134, 02.
- Fenge, Robert & Meier, Volker, 2005.
"Pensions and Fertility Incentives,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
20343, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Smith, Alasdair, 1982. "Intergenerational transfers as social insurance," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 97-106, October.
- Robert Fenge & Jakob von Weizsäcker, 2006.
"Mixing Bismarck and Child Pension Systems:An Optimum Taxation Approach,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1751, CESifo Group Munich.
- Robert Fenge & Jakob Weizsäcker, 2010. "Mixing Bismarck and child pension systems: an optimum taxation approach," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 805-823, March.
- Bruce Bradbury, 1992.
"Measuring the Cost of Children,"
0032, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521806428 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May.
- Shankha Chakraborty, 2002.
"Endogenous Lifetime and Economic Growth,"
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers
2002-03, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 26 Jan 2002.
- Blake, David, 2003. "Pension Schemes and Pension Funds in the United Kingdom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199243532, March.
- John B. Shoven & Sita N. Slavov, 2006. "Political Risk Versus Market Risk in Social Security," NBER Working Papers 12135, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1986. "On Measuring Child Costs: With Applications to Poor Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(4), pages 720-44, August.
- Jens Bonke & Martin Browning, 2011. "Spending on Children: Direct Survey Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(554), pages F123-F143, 08.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521001151 is not listed on IDEAS
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pie:dsedps:2012/147. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.