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PAYG pensions and economic cycles

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  • Fanti, Luciano
  • Gori, Luca

Abstract

This article analyses the dynamics of an overlapping generations economy (Diamond, 1965) with pay-as-you-go financed public pensions and myopic expectations. It is shown that large PAYG pensions triggers economic fluctuations depending on the mutual relationship between technology and preference parameters. Our findings constitute a policy warning about the size of social security and provide another explanation of the occurrence of persistent cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Fanti, Luciano & Gori, Luca, 2010. "PAYG pensions and economic cycles," MPRA Paper 19984, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19984
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/19984/1/MPRA_paper_19984.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2008:i:2:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhang, Jie & Zhang, Junsen & Lee, Ronald, 2003. "Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 83-101, February.
    3. Michel, Philippe & de la Croix, David, 2000. "Myopic and perfect foresight in the OLG model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 53-60, April.
    4. Luca Gori & Luciano Fanti, 2008. "Longevity and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(2), pages 1-8.
    5. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:8:y:2003:i:6:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Longevity, fertility and PAYG pension systems sustainability," Discussion Papers 2009/77, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Luciano Fanti & Luca Spataro, 2008. "Poverty traps and intergenerational transfers," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(6), pages 693-711, December.
    8. Zhang, Junsen & Zhang, Jie & Lee, Ronald, 2001. "Mortality decline and long-run economic growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 485-507, June.
    9. Farmer, Roger E. A., 1986. "Deficits and cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, October.
    10. Andreas Wagener, 2003. "Equilibrium dynamics with different types of pay-as-you-go pension schemes," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 8(6), pages 1-12.
    11. Reichlin, Pietro, 1986. "Equilibrium cycles in an overlapping generations economy with production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 89-102, October.
    12. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    13. Francisco Rodríguez & Daniel Ortega, 2006. "Are capital shares higher in poor countries? Evidence from Industrial Surveys," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-023, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2012. "Endogenous Lifetime in an Overlapping-Generations Small Open Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 121-152, June.
    2. Don H. Chamberlain & L. Murphy Smith & Randall B. Bunker, 2016. "An examination of US state pensions by total state expenditures, state budget deficit and red v. blue state," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 27-44.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2009. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of health and child policies," Discussion Papers 2009/91, Dipartimento di Economia e Management (DEM), University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Myopic foresight; PAYG pensions; Stability; OLG model;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium

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