On the relationship between fertility and public national debt
Public debt and fertility are two issues of major concern in the current economic policy debate, especially in countries with below-replacement-fertility and large debt (which appears further enlarged as a consequence of the recent world financial distress 2008–2009). In this paper we show that, at the steady state, public debt is in general harmful for fertility, in that debt issuing almost ever crowds fertility. The relationship is however reversed if debt is sufficiently low and the share of capital (labor) in the economy is sufficiently low (high). Hence, our analysis would recommend that developed, capital intensive economies (such as OECD countries) aiming at a fertility recovery should reduce national debt, while developing, labor intensive economies, aiming at reducing fertility, should increase (reduce) national debt only if they are debt virtuous (vicious).
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Abel, Andrew B, et al, 1989.
"Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1986. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Abel & Gregory N. Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard Zeckhauser, . "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2002.
"International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 70(3), pages 907-928, May.
- Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International Business Cycles with Endogenous Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 7870, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2000. "International business cycles with endogenous incomplete markets," Staff Report 265, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- David E. Wildasin, 1989.
"Non-Neutrallity of Debt with Endogenous Fertility,"
Discussion Paper Serie A
241, University of Bonn, Germany.
- Barro, R.J. & Becker, G.S., 1988.
"Fertility Choice In A Model Of Economic Growth,"
University of Chicago - Economics Research Center
88-8, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
- Robert J. Barro & Gary S. Becker, . "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 88-8, Chicago - Population Research Center.
- repec:oup:restud:v:56:y:1989:i:1:p:1-19 is not listed on IDEAS
- Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996.
"The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-87, June.
- Holger Strulik, 2003.
"Mortality, the Trade-off between Child Quality and Quantity, and Demo-economic Development,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 499-520, November.
- Holger Strulik, 1999. "Mortality, the Trade-off Between Child Quality and Quantity,and Demo-Economic Development," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 19907, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Strulik, Holger, 1999. "Demographic Transition, Stagnation, and Demoeconomic Cycles in a Model for the Less Developed Economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 397-413, April.
- Michael Brauninger, 2005. "The Budget Deficit, Public Debt, and Endogenous Growth," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 7(5), pages 827-840, December.
- Lapan, Harvey E. & Enders, Walter, 1990.
"Endogenous fertility, Ricardian equivalence, and debt management policy,"
Journal of Public Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 227-248, March.
- Lapan, Harvey E. & Enders, Walter, 1990. "Endogenous Fertility, Ricardian Equivalence and Debt Management Policy," Staff General Research Papers 10814, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- Tetsuo Ono, 2003.
"Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 363-387, 05.
- Ono, Tetsuo, 2002. "Social Security Policy with Public Debt in an Aging Economy," Discussion Paper 107, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Zhang, Jie, 2006. "Second-best public debt with human capital externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 347-360, February.
- Gertler, Mark, 1999.
"Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy,"
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
- Mark Gertler, 1997. "Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy," NBER Working Papers 6000, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Government Debt and Social Security in a Life-Cycle Economy," Working Papers 97-14, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005.
"Poverty traps, aid, and growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3631, The World Bank.
- Piero Manfredi & Luciano Fanti, 2006. "Demography In Macroeconomic Models: When Labour Supply Matters For Economic Cycles," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(4), pages 536-563, November.
- repec:oup:qjecon:v:107:y:1992:i:4:p:1243-59 is not listed on IDEAS
- Kai(Jackie) Zhao, 2009.
"War Debt and the Baby Boom,"
2009 Meeting Papers
856, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Anderson, Gordon, 1993. "An emperical note on assessing dynamic efficiency: Integration, co-integration, and the long run," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 345-352, December.
- Luca Spataro & Luciano Fanti, 2011. "The Optimal Level of Debt in an OLG Model with Endogenous Fertility," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(3), pages 351-369, 08.
- Zhang, Jie, 2003. "Optimal debt, endogenous fertility, and human capital externalities in a model with altruistic bequests," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(7-8), pages 1825-1835, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:843-849. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.