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Fertility, fiscal deficit and sustainability of public debt in an endogenous growth model

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  • Aso Hiroki

    (1 Faculty of Economics, Kobe Gakuin University, 518 Arise, Ikawadani-cho, Nishi-ku, Kobe 651-2180, Japan)

  • Ueshina Mitsuru

    (2 Faculty of Economics, Matsuyama University, 4-2 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama-shi, Ehime 790-8578, Japan)

Abstract

This aim of this study is to construct a model which overlaps generations to clear the effects of fiscal deficit on fertility. The relationship between fiscal deficit and fertility is revealed and the mechanism of fiscal deficit and its effect in reducing fertility is clarified. Empirical evidence shows that an increase in debt-GDP ratio decreases fertility. The model indicates that fiscal deficit has positive and negative effects on fertility through the change of the income tax rate. Numerical simulation shows that an increase in fiscal deficit reduces fertility. Therefore, this result is consistent with the empirical evidence. In addition, this study demonstrates that a steady state would not exist if the child allowance for child-rearing costs exceeds the critical level. This result indicated that an expansion of the child allowance aimed as a countermeasure to the falling birthrate can make the sustainability of public debt unstable. Thus, countermeasures should be formulated to address the falling birthrate depending on the fiscal situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Aso Hiroki & Ueshina Mitsuru, 2023. "Fertility, fiscal deficit and sustainability of public debt in an endogenous growth model," Economics and Business Review, Sciendo, vol. 9(3), pages 224-238, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ecobur:v:9:y:2023:i:3:p:224-238:n:10
    DOI: 10.18559/ebr.2023.3.930
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; fiscal deficit; sustainability of public debt; child allowance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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