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Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?

Author

Listed:
  • Real Arai

    (Graduate School of Social Sciences, Hiroshima University)

  • Takuma Kunieda

    (Department of Economics and Finance,City University of Hong Kong)

  • Keigo Nishida

    (Faculty of Economics, Fukuoka University)

Abstract

To understand mixed evidence provided by empirical studies for the relationship between the accumulation of public debt and economic growth, it is necessary to consider not only the crowd-out effect of public debt on economic growth but also the growth-enhancing crowd-in effect that cannot be uncovered by the traditional theoretical achievements. We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with infinitely lived agents and derive an inverted U-shaped relationship between the accumulation of public debt and economic growth. The analysis focuses on both crowd-out and crowd-in effects that public debt has on private investment in a financially constrained economy and clarifies the mechanism inducing the inverted U-shaped relationship in the growth process. When the public debt-to-GDP ratio is below a certain threshold level, the crowd-in effect dominates the crowd-out effect and the accumulation of public debt promotes economic growth. When the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the threshold level, the accumulation of public debt begins to hinder economic growth with the crowd-out effect dominating the crowd-in effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Real Arai & Takuma Kunieda & Keigo Nishida, 2014. "Is Public Debt Growth-Enhancing or Growth-Reducing?," KIER Working Papers 884, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:kyo:wpaper:884
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    File URL: http://www.kier.kyoto-u.ac.jp/DP/DP884.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Röhrs, Sigrid & Winter, Christoph, 2015. "Public versus private provision of liquidity: Is there a trade-off?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 314-339.
    2. Keiichiro Kobayashi, 2015. "Public Debt Overhang and Economic Growth," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 247-276, March.
    3. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro, 2014. "Public Debt Overhang in the Heterogeneous Agent Model," Discussion papers 14044, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    4. Mathieu Boullot, 2017. "Secular Stagnation, Liquidity Trap and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," Working Papers halshs-01295012, HAL.
    5. Kobayashi, Keiichiro, 2013. "A Theory of Public Debt Overhang," CIS Discussion paper series 589, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Public debt; Crowd-in effect; Financial market imperfections;

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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