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Chaotic Dynamics in Credit Constrained Emerging Economies

  • Jordi Caballé
  • Xavier Jarque
  • Elisabetta Michetti

This paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies. By assuming that firms face credit constraints, our model displays a complex dynamic behavior for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy. The basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies. Our instability concept means that small shocks have a persistent effect on the long run behavior of the model and also that economies can exhibit cycles with a very high period or even chaotic dynamic patterns.

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Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 121.

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Date of creation: Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:121
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  1. Betty C. Daniel & John Bailey Jones, 2001. "Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1997. "Dualism and macroeconomic volatility," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9720, CEPREMAP.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
  4. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
  6. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Pollicy and Currency Crises," Working Papers 99.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  7. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
  8. Stutzer, Michael J., 1980. "Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 353-376, May.
  9. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
  10. Petrei, A. Humberto & Tybout, James, 1985. "Microeconomic adjustments in Argentina during 1976-1981: The importance of changing levels of financial subsidies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 949-967, August.
  11. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-14, June.
  12. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  13. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H, 1981. "Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 459-71, July.
  14. Deneckere, Raymond & Pelikan, Steve, 1986. "Competitive chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-25, October.
  15. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
  16. Cars Hommes & Helena Nusse, 1991. "“Period three to period two” bifurcation for piecewise linear models," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 157-169, June.
  17. Michael J. Stutzer, 1980. "Chaotic dynamics and bifurcation in a macro model," Staff Report 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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