IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/2888.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth

Author

Listed:
  • Gomes, Orlando

Abstract

Following the literature on growth, cycles and financial development, this paper develops an endogenous growth model where the source of endogenous business cycles relates to the allocation of credit between productive investment and consumption. An important role is given to consumer sentiment, because this determines the willingness of households in terms of demand for credit; in particular, optimistic beliefs about the economy’s macro performance deviate financial resources from investment in favour of consumption. The dynamic analysis indicates that Neimark-Sacker and flip bifurcations eventually separate stable and unstable manifolds, and as a result a region of nonlinear motion is generated: cycles of various periodicities and chaotic motion characterize the behaviour of the long run time paths of accumulated wealth, output and consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth," MPRA Paper 2888, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2888
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2888/1/MPRA_paper_2888.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Amable, Bruno & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2004. "Credit rationing, profit accumulation and economic growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 301-307, December.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397.
    3. Nishimura Kazuo & Sorger Gerhard, 1996. "Optimal Cycles and Chaos: A Survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
    4. Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
    5. Deneckere, Raymond & Pelikan, Steve, 1986. "Competitive chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-25, October.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
    7. Boldrin, Michele & Nishimura, Kazuo & Shigoka, Tadashi & Yano, Makoto, 2001. "Chaotic Equilibrium Dynamics in Endogenous Growth Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 97-132, January.
    8. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Indeterminacy in dynamic models: When Diamond meets Ramsey," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 513-536, May.
    9. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    10. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
    11. Caballe, Jordi & Jarque, Xavier & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2006. "Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1261-1275, August.
    12. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, January.
    13. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2010. "Public infrastructures, public consumption, and welfare in a new-open-economy-macro model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 827-837, September.
    14. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2000. "Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-04, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
    16. Aloi, Marta & Dixon, Huw D. & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in an open economy with increasing returns to scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 97-125, January.
    17. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    18. Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March.
    19. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
    20. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    21. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    22. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:633-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-414, June.
    24. Jess Benhabib & Richard H. Day, 1981. "Rational Choice and Erratic Behaviour," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 459-471.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael Wegener, 2014. "Heterogeneous expectations and debt in a growth model for a small open economy," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(1), pages 125-136, April.
    2. Edward M Feasel & Nobuyuki Kanazawa, 2013. "Sentiment toward Trading Partners and International Trade," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 309-327.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Orlando Gomes, 2010. "Consumer confidence, endogenous growth and endogenous cycles," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 377-404, September.
    2. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Nonlinear dynamics in a model of financial development with a risk premium," MPRA Paper 2887, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Gomes, Orlando, 2009. "A two-dimensional non-equilibrium dynamic model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 221-238, September.
    4. Gomes, Orlando, 2008. "Too much of a good thing: Endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 933-945, September.
    5. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Local Bifurcations and Global Dynamics in a Solow-type Endogenous Business Cycles Model," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 7(1), pages 91-127, May.
    6. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
    7. Orlando Gomes, 2007. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, January.
    8. Gomes, Orlando, 2010. "On the Allocation of Credit and Aggregate Fluctuations," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 64(4), December.
    9. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:15:y:2007:i:1:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Caballe, Jordi & Jarque, Xavier & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2006. "Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1261-1275, August.
    12. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Decentralized Allocation of Human Capital and Nonlinear Growth," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 45-75, February.
    13. Gomes, Orlando, 2015. "Optimal resource allocation in a representative investor economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 72-84.
    14. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Time Preference and Cyclical Endogenous Growth in an AK Growth Model," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 28, pages 32-55, December.
    15. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Time preference and cyclical endogenous growth," MPRA Paper 3282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Luis A. Aguirre & Antonio Aguirre, 1997. "A tutorial introduction to nonlinear dynamics in economics," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 7(2), pages 9-47.
    17. Kunieda, Takuma, 2008. "Finance and Growth Cycles," MPRA Paper 11340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(5), pages 633-664, November.
    19. Angeletos, George-Marios & Calvet, Laurent-Emmanuel, 2005. "Incomplete-market dynamics in a neoclassical production economy," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4-5), pages 407-438, August.
    20. Nijkamp, P. & Poot, J., 1991. "Lessons from non-linear dynamic economics," Serie Research Memoranda 0105, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    21. Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura, 1995. "Non-linear evolution of dynamic spatial systems. The relevance of chaos and ecologically-based models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 183-210, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial development; Endogenous business cycles; Endogenous growth; Credit to consumption; Local bifurcations; Nonlinear dynamics; Chaos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.