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Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth

  • Gomes, Orlando

Following the literature on growth, cycles and financial development, this paper develops an endogenous growth model where the source of endogenous business cycles relates to the allocation of credit between productive investment and consumption. An important role is given to consumer sentiment, because this determines the willingness of households in terms of demand for credit; in particular, optimistic beliefs about the economy’s macro performance deviate financial resources from investment in favour of consumption. The dynamic analysis indicates that Neimark-Sacker and flip bifurcations eventually separate stable and unstable manifolds, and as a result a region of nonlinear motion is generated: cycles of various periodicities and chaotic motion characterize the behaviour of the long run time paths of accumulated wealth, output and consumption.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/2888/1/MPRA_paper_2888.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2888.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2888
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  1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Sharon G. Harrison, 1996. "Chaos, Sunspots, and Automatic Stabilizers," NBER Working Papers 5703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Guo, Jang-Ting & Lansing, Kevin J., 2002. "Fiscal Policy, Increasing Returns, And Endogenous Fluctuations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 633-664, November.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
  4. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2010. "Public infrastructures, public consumption, and welfare in a new-open-economy-macro model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 827-837, September.
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  6. Amable, Bruno & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten RALF, 2002. "Credit Rationing, Profit Accumulation and Economic Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 5, Royal Economic Society.
  7. Piketty, Thomas & Banerjee, Abhijit & Aghion, Philippe, 1999. "Dualism and Macroeconomic Volatility," Scholarly Articles 4554124, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
  9. Cazzavillan, Guido & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Pintus, Patrick A., 1998. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 60-107, May.
  10. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
  11. David Gross & Nicholas Souleles, 2001. "Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-10, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  12. Aloi, Marta & Dixon, Huw D. & Lloyd-Braga, Teresa, 2000. "Endogenous fluctuations in an open economy with increasing returns to scale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 97-125, January.
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  14. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  15. Jordi Caballe & Xavier Jarque & Elisabetta Michetti, 2004. "Chaotic Dynamics in Credit Constrained Emerging Economies," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 605.04, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  16. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-14, June.
  17. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2005. "Indeterminacy in Dynamic Models: When Diamond Meets Ramsey," CEPR Discussion Papers 5255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Deneckere, Raymond & Pelikan, Steve, 1986. "Competitive chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-25, October.
  19. Boldrin, Michele & Nishimura, Kazuo & Shigoka, Tadashi & Yano, Makoto, 2001. "Chaotic Equilibrium Dynamics in Endogenous Growth Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 97-132, January.
  20. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
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  23. Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March.
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