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Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth

  • Orlando Gomes

    ()

Following the literature on growth, cycles and financial development, this paper develops an endogenous growth model where the source of endogenous business cycles relates to the allocation of credit between productive investment and consumption. An important role is given to consumer sentiment, because this determines the willingness of households in terms of demand for credit; in particular, optimistic beliefs about the economy’s macro performance deviate financial resources from investment in favour of consumption. The dynamic analysis indicates that Neimark-Sacker and flip bifurcations eventually separate stable and unstable manifolds, and as a result a region of nonlinear motion is generated: cycles of various periodicities and chaotic motion characterize the behaviour of the long run time paths of accumulated wealth, output and consumption.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00191-009-0132-1
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Evolutionary Economics.

Volume (Year): 20 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 95-114

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Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:20:y:2010:i:1:p:95-114
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  1. Amable, Bruno & Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Kirsten RALF, 2002. "Credit Rationing, Profit Accumulation and Economic Growth," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 5, Royal Economic Society.
  2. G, Cazzavillan & T, Lloyd-Braga & P, A, Pintus, 1997. "Multiple Steady States and Endogenous Fluctuations with Increasing Returns to Scale in Production," Working Papers 97-29, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  3. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Philippe Aghion & Abhijit Banerjee & Thomas Piketty, 1999. "Dualism And Macroeconomic Volatility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1359-1397, November.
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  6. Jang-Ting Guo & Kevin Lansing, 1999. "Fiscal policy, increasing returns, and endogenous fluctuations," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2004. "Financial Development and the Instability of Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 10246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2010. "Public infrastructures, public consumption, and welfare in a new-open-economy-macro model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 827-837, September.
  9. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
  10. Lloyd-Braga, Teresa & Nourry, Carine & Venditti, Alain, 2007. "Indeterminacy in dynamic models: When Diamond meets Ramsey," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 513-536, May.
  11. Jordi Caballé & Xavier Jarque & Elisabetta Michetti, 2004. "Chaotic Dynamics in Credit Constrained Emerging Economies," Working Papers 121, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  12. Deneckere, Raymond & Pelikan, Steve, 1986. "Competitive chaos," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 13-25, October.
  13. Marta Aloi & Huw D. Dixon & Teresa Lloyd-Braga, 1998. "Endogenous Fluctuations In an Open Economy with Increasing Returns to Scale," Discussion Papers 98-03, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  14. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1985. "On Endogenous Competitive Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 995-1045, September.
  15. Cellarier, Laurent, 2006. "Constant gain learning and business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-85, March.
  16. Christiano, Lawrence J. & G. Harrison, Sharon, 1999. "Chaos, sunspots and automatic stabilizers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 3-31, August.
  17. Boldrin, Michele & Montrucchio, Luigi, 1986. "On the indeterminacy of capital accumulation paths," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 26-39, October.
  18. Orlando Gomes, 2006. "Routes to chaos in macroeconomic theory," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 33(6), pages 437-468, November.
  19. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:5:p:633-64 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2000. "Consumer Response to Changes in Credit Supply: Evidence from Credit Card Data," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-04, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  21. Day, Richard H, 1982. "Irregular Growth Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 406-14, June.
  22. Nishimura Kazuo & Sorger Gerhard, 1996. "Optimal Cycles and Chaos: A Survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, April.
  23. Boldrin, Michele & Nishimura, Kazuo & Shigoka, Tadashi & Yano, Makoto, 2001. "Chaotic Equilibrium Dynamics in Endogenous Growth Models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 97-132, January.
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