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Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

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  • Daniel, Betty C.
  • Jones, John Bailey

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation of why financial liberalization is likely to generate financial crises in emerging market economies. We first show that under financial repression the aggregate capital stock and bank net worth are both likely to be low. This leads a newly liberalized bank to be highly levered, because the marginal product of capital---and thus loan interest rates---are high. The high returns on capital, however, also make default unlikely, and they encourage the bank to retain all of its earnings. As the bank's net worth grows, aggregate capital rises, the marginal product of capital falls and a banking crisis becomes more likely. Although the bank faces conflicting incentives toward risk-taking, as net worth continues to grow the bank will become increasingly cautious. Numerical results suggest that the bank will reduce its risk, by reducing its leverage, before issuing dividends. We also find that government bailouts, which allow defaulting banks to continue running, induce significantly more risk-taking than the liability limits associated with standard bankruptcy.
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  • Daniel, Betty C. & Jones, John Bailey, 2007. "Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 202-221, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:72:y:2007:i:1:p:202-221
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    Cited by:

    1. Julián Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?: Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3971, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Enowbi Batuo & Simplice Asongu, 2017. "Linkages between financial development, financial instability, financial liberalisation and economic growth in Africa," Working Papers 17/030, African Governance and Development Institute..
    3. Caballe, Jordi & Jarque, Xavier & Michetti, Elisabetta, 2006. "Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1261-1275, August.
    4. Julián Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises?: Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom-Bust Cycles," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3971, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Xiuping Hua & Anders C. Johansson & Xun Wang, 2017. "National and regional financial openness in China," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 127-140.
    6. Puspa Amri & Apanard P. Angkinand & Clas Wihlborg, 2011. "International comparisons of bank regulation, liberalization, and banking crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 322-339, November.
    7. Chen, Minghua & Wu, Ji & Jeon, Bang Nam & Wang, Rui, 2017. "Monetary policy and bank risk-taking: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, pages 116-140.
    8. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:3:p:315-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Boukef Jlassi, Nabila & Hamdi, Helmi & Joyce, Joseph, 2016. "External Liabilities, Domestic Institutions and Banking Crises in Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 81120, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Apr 2017.
    10. Bastidon, Cécile & Gilles, Philippe & Huchet, Nicolas, 2008. "The international lender of last resort and selective bail-out," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, pages 144-152.
    11. Duygun, Meryem & Shaban, Mohamed & Sickles, Robin C. & Weyman-Jones, Thomas, 2015. "How Regulatory Capital Requirement Affect Banks' Productivity: An Application to Emerging Economies' Banks," Working Papers 15-012, Rice University, Department of Economics.
    12. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. Ramzi FARHANI & Ghrissi MHAMDI & Abdelkader AGUIR & Mounir SMIDA, 2015. "Effect of Financial Liberalization on the Probability of Occurrence of Banking Crises," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 3(1), pages 14-21.
    14. Meryem Duygun & Mohamed Shaban & Robin Sickles & Thomas Weyman-Jones, 2015. "How a regulatory capital requirement affects banks’ productivity: an application to emerging economies," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 237-248, December.
    15. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Vachadze, George, 2015. "Financial liberalization: Poverty trap or chaos," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 1-9.
    16. Luo, Yun & Tanna, Sailesh & De Vita, Glauco, 2016. "Financial openness, risk and bank efficiency: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 132-148.
    17. Magdalena Radulescu & Marinela Tanascovici, 2012. "Profitability of the CEE Banking Systems During the Crisis Period," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 12(1), pages 274-291.
    18. Alin Marius ANDRIES & Vasile COCRIS & Silviu Gabriel URSU, 2012. "Determinants Of Bank Performance In Cee Countries," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 10, pages 165-177, December.
    19. Batuo Enowbi, Michael & Kupukile, Mlambo, 2012. "Financial instability, financial openness and economic growth in african countries," MPRA Paper 43340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hichem Saidi & Khaled Guesmi & Houssem Rachdi, 2016. "Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Presence of Structural Breaks and Cross-Section Dependence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2225-2236.
    21. Christopher Baum & Madhavi Pundit & Arief Ramayandi, 2015. "Openness and financial stability," EcoMod2015 8652, EcoMod.
    22. Houssem Rachdi, 2010. "The Link between International Supervision and Banking Crises," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 321-332, September.
    23. Aidi, Wafa, 2013. "Optima exchange crisis regression and twin crisis: Evidences for some MENA countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-311.
    24. Enowbi Batuo, Michael & Mlambo, Kupukile, 2012. "Financial liberalisation, Banking Crises and Economic Growth in African Countries," MPRA Paper 41524, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Sufian, Fadzlan, 2009. "Determinants of bank efficiency during unstable macroeconomic environment: Empirical evidence from Malaysia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 54-77.

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