IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/94837.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Huiyu Li

Abstract

The U.S. economy came into the pandemic, and looks likely to leave it, on a slow-growth path. The near- term level of potential output has fallen because of shortfalls in labor that should reverse over time. Labor productivity, to a surprising degree, has followed an accelerated version of its Great Recession path with initially strong growth followed by weak growth. But, as of mid-2022, it appears that the overall level of labor and total factor productivity are only modestly affected. The sign of the effect depends on whether we use the strong income-side measures of pandemic output growth or the much weaker expenditure-side measures. There is considerable heterogeneity across industries. We can explain some but not all of the heterogeneity through industry differences in cyclical utilization and off-the-clock hours worked. After accounting for these factors, industries where it is easy to work from home have grown somewhat faster than they did pre-pandemic. In contrast, industries where it is hard to work from home have performed extremely poorly.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94837
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2022-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/wp2022-19.pdf
    File Function: Full text - article PDF
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2022-19?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Trajtenberg, M., 1995. "General purpose technologies 'Engines of growth'?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 83-108, January.
    2. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2021. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity [Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 302-326.
    3. Nicholas Bloom & Charles I. Jones & John Van Reenen & Michael Webb, 2020. "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 1104-1144, April.
    4. Barrero, Jose Maria & Bloom, Nick & Davis, Steven J., 2020. "Why Working From Home Will Stick," SocArXiv wfdbe, Center for Open Science.
    5. Philippe Aghion & Antonin Bergeaud & Timo Boppart & Peter J. Klenow & Huiyu Li, 2019. "Missing Growth from Creative Destruction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2795-2822, August.
    6. Miles S. Kimball & John G. Fernald & Susanto Basu, 2006. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1418-1448, December.
    7. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Nicholas Bloom & James Liang & John Roberts & Zhichun Jenny Ying, 2015. "Does Working from Home Work? Evidence from a Chinese Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 130(1), pages 165-218.
    9. Jay Stewart, 2022. "Why was Labor Productivity Growth So High during the COVID-19 Pandemic? The Role of Labor Composition," Economic Working Papers 545, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
    10. Dingel, Jonathan I. & Neiman, Brent, 2020. "How many jobs can be done at home?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    11. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
    12. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2004. "The Case of the Missing Productivity Growth, or Does Information Technology Explain Why Productivity Accelerated in the United States but Not in the United Kingdom?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 9-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Charles I. Jones, 2002. "Sources of U.S. Economic Growth in a World of Ideas," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 220-239, March.
    14. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2010. "Product Creation and Destruction: Evidence and Price Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 691-723, June.
    15. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    16. Melanie S. Brucks & Jonathan Levav, 2022. "Publisher Correction: Virtual communication curbs creative idea generation," Nature, Nature, vol. 606(7915), pages 17-17, June.
    17. Jaison R. Abel & Ishita Dey & Todd M. Gabe, 2012. "Productivity And The Density Of Human Capital," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 562-586, October.
    18. Acemoglu, Daron & Tahbaz-Salehi, Alireza, 2020. "Firms, Failures, and Fluctuations: The Macroeconomics of Supply Chain Disruptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15074, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    20. David M. Byrne & John G. Fernald & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2016. "Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(1 (Spring), pages 109-182.
    21. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li & Mitchell Ochse, 2021. "Future Output Loss from COVID-Induced School Closures," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2021(04), pages 01-05, February.
    22. Robert J. Gordon & Hassan Sayed, 2022. "A New Interpretation of Productivity Growth Dynamics in the Pre-Pandemic and Pandemic Era U.S. Economy, 1950-2022," NBER Working Papers 30267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. John G. Fernald & Charles I. Jones, 2014. "The Future of US Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 44-49, May.
    24. Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Pawel Smietanka & Gregory Thwaites, 2020. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Productivity," NBER Working Papers 28233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Crane, Leland D. & Decker, Ryan A. & Flaaen, Aaron & Hamins-Puertolas, Adrian & Kurz, Christopher, 2022. "Business exit during the COVID-19 pandemic: Non-traditional measures in historical context," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    26. Michael Gibbs & Friederike Mengel & Christoph Siemroth, 2023. "Work from Home and Productivity: Evidence from Personnel and Analytics Data on Information Technology Professionals," Journal of Political Economy Microeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 7-41.
    27. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    28. Jeff E. Biddle, 2014. "Retrospectives: The Cyclical Behavior of Labor Productivity and the Emergence of the Labor Hoarding Concept," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(2), pages 197-212, Spring.
    29. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 2002. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 963-991, June.
    30. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The Past and Future of Economic Growth: A Semi-Endogenous Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 125-152, August.
    31. Melanie S. Brucks & Jonathan Levav, 2022. "Virtual communication curbs creative idea generation," Nature, Nature, vol. 605(7908), pages 108-112, May.
    32. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Productivity and unemployment over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(8), pages 1013-1025, November.
    33. Thomas Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard, 2011. "Flows of people, flows of ideas, and the inequality of nations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-32, March.
    34. Jason Furman & Melissa Schettini Kearney & Wilson Powell, 2021. "The Role of Childcare Challenges in the US Jobs Market Recovery During the COVID-19 Pandemic," NBER Working Papers 28934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Janice C. Eberly & Jonathan Haskel & Paul Mizen, 2021. ""Potential Capital”, Working From Home, and Economic Resilience," NBER Working Papers 29431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    37. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    38. Sarah Albert & Robert G. Valletta, 2022. "Searching for Maximum Employment," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(02), pages 1-06, February.
    39. Michael Peters & Conor Walsh, 2019. "Declining Dynamism, Increasing Markups and Missing Growth: The Role of the Labor Force," 2019 Meeting Papers 658, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    40. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall.
    41. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Ferrante & Sebastian Graves & Matteo Iacoviello, 2023. "The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Andrey Sinyakov & Konstantin Styrin & Ivan Khotulev, 2022. "Review of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium ‘Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy’," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(4), pages 113-128, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    2. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Goldin, Ian & Koutroumpis, Pantelis & Lafond, François & Winkler, Julian, 2020. "Why is productivity slowing down?," MPRA Paper 99172, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2023. "Productivity in the World Economy During and After the Pandemic," Working Paper Series 2023-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    6. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    7. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    8. John G. Fernald & J. Christina Wang, 2016. "Why Has the Cyclicality of Productivity Changed? What Does It Mean?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 465-496, October.
    9. Alexander Murray, 2017. "What Explains the Post-2004 U.S.Productivity Slowdown?," CSLS Research Reports 2017-05, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    10. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    11. John G. Fernald, 2017. "Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 265-267, October.
    12. Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian & Kecht, Valentin & Lehmann, Robert, 2022. "The diffusion of technological progress in ICT," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    13. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    14. Maarten Dossche & Andrea Gavazzi & Vivien Lewis, 2023. "Labor Adjustment and Productivity in the OECD," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 111-130, January.
    15. Duanyi Yang & Erin L. Kelly & Laura D. Kubzansky & Lisa Berkman, 2023. "Working from Home and Worker Well-being: New Evidence from Germany," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 504-531, May.
    16. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Stanley Fischer, 2017. "Government Policy and Labor Productivity : a speech at the \"Washington Transformation? Politics, Policies, Prospects,\" a forum sponsored by the Summer Institute of Martha’s Vineyard Hebrew," Speech 962, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. KITAGAWA Ritsu & KURODA Sachiko & OKUDAIRA Hiroko & OWAN Hideo, 2021. "Working from Home: Its Effects on Productivity and Mental Health," Discussion papers 21024, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Ekaterina Prytkova, 2021. "ICT's Wide Web: a System-Level Analysis of ICT's Industrial Diffusion with Algorithmic Links," Jena Economics Research Papers 2021-005, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    20. Vij, Akshay & Souza, Flavio F. & Barrie, Helen & Anilan, V. & Sarmiento, Sergio & Washington, Lynette, 2023. "Employee preferences for working from home in Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 782-800.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth accounting; productivity; potential output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:94837. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.