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Declining Dynamism, Increasing Markups and Missing Growth: The Role of the Labor Force

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  • Michael Peters

    (Yale University)

  • Conor Walsh

    (Yale University)

Abstract

A growing body of empirical research highlights substantial changes in the US economy during the last three decades. Business dynamism – namely job reallocation, firm entry and creative destruction – is declining. Market power, as measured by markups and industry concentration, seems to be on the rise. Aggregate productivity growth is sluggish. We show that declines in the rate of growth of the labor force can qualitatively account for all of these features in a standard model of firm-dynamics. Despite its richness we can characterize the link between population growth and dynamism, markups and growth analytically. When we calibrate the model to the universe of U.S. Census data, the labor force channel can explain a large fraction of the aggregate trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Peters & Conor Walsh, 2019. "Declining Dynamism, Increasing Markups and Missing Growth: The Role of the Labor Force," 2019 Meeting Papers 658, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed019:658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Michael J. Böhm & Christian Siegel, 2021. "Make Yourselves Scarce: The Effect Of Demographic Change On The Relative Wages And Employment Rates Of Experienced Workers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1537-1568, November.
    3. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Fatih Karahan & Benjamin Pugsley & Aysegül Sahin, 2019. "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," Working Papers 19-21, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    5. De Loecker, Jan & Obermeier, Tim & Van Reenen, John, 2022. "Firms and inequality," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117827, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Morchio, Iacopo & Moser, Christian, 2018. "The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences," MPRA Paper 99276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2020.
    7. Tetsugen HARUYAMA, 2021. "A Schumpeterian Exploration of Gini and Top/Bottom Income Shares," Discussion Papers 2125, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    8. Morchio, Iacopo & Moser, Christian, 2018. "The Gender Pay Gap: Micro Sources and Macro Consequences," MPRA Paper 99276, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2020.
    9. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    10. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2021. "The Impact of COVID on Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2021-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.

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