IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/00044.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth

Author

Listed:
  • John G. Fernald
  • Bing Wang

Abstract

Information technology fueled a surge in U.S. productivity growth in the late 1990s and early 2000s. However, this rapid pace proved to be temporary, as productivity growth slowed before the Great Recession. Furthermore, looking through the effects of the economic downturn on productivity, the reduced pace of productivity gains has continued and suggests that average future output growth will likely be relatively slow.

Suggested Citation

  • John G. Fernald & Bing Wang, 2015. "The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00044
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/el2015-04.pdf
    File Function: Full Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, 2013. "TFP during a credit crunch," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 1150-1178.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    4. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 32-69, January.
    5. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayseful Sahin, 2013. "The Decline of the U.S. Labor Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(2 (Fall)), pages 1-63.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2015. "Is potential output growth falling?," MPRA Paper 68278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sweet, Cassandra & Eterovic, Dalibor, 2019. "Do patent rights matter? 40 years of innovation, complexity and productivity," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 78-93.
    3. Naudé, Wim, 2024. "What They Don't Teach You about Artificial Intelligence at Business School: Stagnation, Oil, and War," IZA Discussion Papers 17306, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Komlos John, 2016. "Has Creative Destruction become more Destructive?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(4), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Rebecca M. Blank, 2016. "What Drives American Competitiveness?," The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, , vol. 663(1), pages 8-30, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janice C. dup Eberly & John dup Fernald, 2022. "Jackson Hole 2022 - Reassessing Economic Constraints: Potential Output (The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, August.
    2. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    3. John G. Fernald & Robert E. Hall & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2017. "The Disappointing Recovery of Output after 2009," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    4. John G. Fernald & Huiyu Li, 2022. "The Impact of COVID on Productivity and Potential Output," Working Paper Series 2022-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Ferraresi Tommaso & Roventini Andrea & Semmler Willi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 599-625, August.
    6. Georg Graetz & Guy Michaels, 2018. "Robots at Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 753-768, December.
    7. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Ezra Oberfield & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Endogenous Education and Long-Run Factor Shares," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 215-232, June.
    8. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    9. Chad Syverson, 2017. "Challenges to Mismeasurement Explanations for the US Productivity Slowdown," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 165-186, Spring.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    11. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    12. Haskel, Jonathan & Edquist, Harald & Goodridge, Peter, 2019. "Productivity, Network Effects and Telecommunications Capital: Evidence from the US and Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 13910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sequeira, Tiago Neves & Gil, Pedro Mazeda & Afonso, Oscar, 2018. "Endogenous growth and entropy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 100-120.
    15. John G. Fernald, 2017. "Paradox resolved? A review of the Rise and Fall of American Growth, by Robert J. Gordon," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 265-267, October.
    16. John G. Fernald, 2016. "Reassessing Longer-Run U.S. Growth: How Low?," Working Paper Series 2016-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    18. Stanley Fischer, 2017. "Government Policy and Labor Productivity : a speech at the \"Washington Transformation? Politics, Policies, Prospects,\" a forum sponsored by the Summer Institute of Martha’s Vineyard Hebrew," Speech 962, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "Populism and the economics of globalization," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 1(1), pages 12-33, June.
    21. Feng, Qu & Wu, Guiying Laura, 2018. "On the reverse causality between output and infrastructure: The case of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 97-104.
    22. Raffaello Bronzini & Paolo Piselli, 2006. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity: the role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 597, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00044. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.