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Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles

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  • Zheng Liu
  • Pengfei Wang

Abstract

We argue that credit constraints not only amplify fundamental shocks, they can also lead to self-fulfilling business cycles. We study a model with heterogeneous firms, in which imperfect contract enforcement implies that productive firms face binding credit constraints, with the borrowing capacity limited by expected equity value. A drop in equity value tightens credit constraints and reallocates resources from productive to unproductive firms. Such reallocation reduces aggregate productivity, further depresses equity value, generating a financial multiplier. Aggregate dynamics are isomorphic to those in a representative-agent economy with increasing returns. For sufficiently tight credit constraints, the model generates self-fulfilling business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang, 2014. "Credit Constraints and Self-Fulfilling Business Cycles," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 32-69, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:32-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.6.1.32
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nutahara, Kengo, 2015. "Do credit market imperfections justify a central bank׳s response to asset price fluctuations?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 81-94.
    2. Oscar Pavlov & Mark Weder, 2017. "Product Scope and Endogenous Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 175-191, March.
    3. Liu, Zheng & Miao, Jianjun & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Land prices and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-105.
    4. Fernald, John G. & Wang, Bing, 2015. "The recent rise and fall of rapid productivity growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:114-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Feng Dong & Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2016. "Credit search and credit cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 215-239, February.
    8. Mino, Kazuo, 2015. "A simple model of endogenous growth with financial frictions and firm heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 20-23.
    9. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    10. Kazuo Mino, 2016. "Fiscal Policy in a Growing Economy with Financial Frictions and Firm Heterogeneity," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 67(1), pages 3-30, March.
    11. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2014. "Liquidity Premia, Price-Rent Dynamics, and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 20377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gerasimos T. Soldatos & Erotokritos Varelas, 2016. "Loan as a Durable Good and Bank Indirect-Tax Incidence," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(1), pages 33-38, January.
    13. Jess Benhabib & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2016. "Chaotic banking crises and regulations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 393-422, February.
    14. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2017. "Country Size, Specialization Patterns and Secular Demand Stagnation," CESifo Working Paper Series 6752, CESifo Group Munich.
    15. Soldatos, Gerasimos T. & Varelas, Erotokritos, 2015. "Loan as a Durable Good and Bank Indirect-Tax Incidence," MPRA Paper 68220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hintermaier, Thomas & Koeniger, Winfried, 2015. "Household Debt and Crises of Confidence," Economics Working Paper Series 1518, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    17. Piero Ferri & Annalisa Cristini & Anna Maria Variato, 2016. "Endogenous fluctuations, markups, capacity and credit constraints," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 11(2), pages 273-292, October.
    18. Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2012. "Bubbles and Total Factor Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 82-87, May.
    19. repec:fip:fedlrv:00094 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Chin-Yoong Wong & Yoke-Kee Eng, 2015. "Surviving Asymmetry in Capital Flows and the Business Cycles: The Role of Prudential Capital Controls," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 545-563, August.
    21. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Sunspot-Driven Business Cycles: An Overview," KIER Working Papers 973, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    22. P. A. Pintus & Y. Wen & X. Xing, 2016. "The Inverted Leading Indicator Property and Redistribution Effect of the Interest Rate," Working papers 616, Banque de France.
    23. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2015. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loan Contracts, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2015-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 28 Mar 2016.
    24. Yoshiyasu Ono, 2014. "Macroeconomic interdependence between a stagnant and a fully employed country," ISER Discussion Paper 0893rr, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, revised Feb 2017.
    25. Benhabib, Jess & Dong, Feng & Wang, Pengfei, 2018. "Adverse selection and self-fulfilling business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 114-130.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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