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Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments

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  • Benkovskis, Konstantins

Abstract

The main goal of the promotion paper is to forecast Latvia's current account, and using this forecast to define, whether the current account deficit is a significant risk factor for Latvian economy. The modelling of Latvia's current account is made by using econometric methodology, on the base of all the most important theoretical concepts of current account. Although the current account deficit is a risk factor for Latvian economy, it will not cause currency and financial crisis during the time period before Latvia's accession into the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The econometric models well describe Latvia's current account and its components. Developed current account models are suitable for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Benkovskis, Konstantins, 2005. "Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments," MPRA Paper 23274, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:23274
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23274/1/MPRA_paper_23274.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Donal McGettigan, 2000. "Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union," IMF Occasional Papers 189, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Latvia; current account; forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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