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Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation

Author

Listed:
  • Vladimir Benacek
  • Ladislav Prokop
  • Jan A. Visek

Abstract

Using panel data for 29 industries, we test alternative specifications of Czech export and import functions. The balance of trade is primarily influenced by the real exchange rate, aggregate demand and tariff changes. Reduced growth of the Czech economy after 1996 was an important factor that has kept the balance of trade at a sustainable level in the medium-term, contributing even to the appreciation of the real exchange rate. The secondary fundamental factors, relevant for structural adjustments, a sustainable trade balance and an equilibrium exchange rate, rest, however, on supply-side characteristics such as changes in endowments of physical and human capital, inflows of FDI and growing competitiveness of domestic production. We can argue that appreciation of the real exchange rate is a handicap to Czech exports, especially to exports to non-EU countries. Nevertheless, in the EU case, the appreciation of koruna was countervailed by tariff concessions, improved quality, switchover to commodities with higher contents of value added, gains associated with FDI and growing foreign demand absorption. At the same time, appreciation of the real exchange rate has significantly opened the Czech market to imports but the unconstrained import penetration remained blocked by the growing competitiveness of Czech products in costs, prices and quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Vladimir Benacek & Ladislav Prokop & Jan A. Visek, 2003. "Determining Factors of the Czech Foreign Trade Balance: Structural Issues in Trade Creation," Working Papers 2003/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2003/03
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    File URL: http://www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/cnb_wp/download/wp3-2003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Reininger, 2008. "Factors Driving Import Demand in Selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European Countries," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 100-125.
    2. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2008. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility, and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe: Just another Blur Project?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 577-593, August.
    3. Elena Spasova, 2016. "Balance-of-payments constraints on Bulgarian economic growth," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 90-108.
    4. Balázs ÉGERT & Kirsten LOMMATZSCH, "undated". "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Acceding Countries: How Large is Our Confidence (Interval)?," EcoMod2004 330600047, EcoMod.
    5. Bal??zs ??gert & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2004. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the Transition: The Tradable Price-Based Real Appreciation and Estimation Uncertainty," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-676, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    6. Vladimir Benacek & Jiri Podpiera & Ladislav Prokop, 2005. "Determining Factors of Czech Foreign Trade: A Cross-Section Time Series Perspective," Working Papers 2005/03, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    7. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tells Us about Acceding Economies," Working Papers IES 64, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised 2004.
    8. Karel Janda, 2008. "Government Support of the Czech Export Credit," Český finanční a účetní časopis, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2008(1), pages 62-75.
    9. Vladimír Benáček & Jiří Podpiera & Ladislav Prokop, 2006. "Command Economy after the Shocks of Opening up: The Factors of Adjustment and Specialisation in the Czech Trade," Working Papers IES 2006/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    10. Balázs Égert & Amalia Morales-Zumaquero, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Foreign Exchange Volatility and Export Performance in Central and Eastern Europe," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 76-97.
    11. Bulir, Ales & Smidkova, Katerina, 2005. "Exchange rates in the new EU accession countries: What have we learned from the forerunners?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 163-186, June.
    12. Kateřina Šmídková & Aleš Bulíř, 2005. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth? What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2005(4), pages 291-316.
    13. García Solanes José, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Central and Eastern European Countries. Why the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Does Not Explain the Whole Story," Working Papers 2010100, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
    14. Vit Barta, 2005. "Fulfilment of the Maastricht Inflation Criterion by the Czech Republic: Potential Costs and Policy Options," Research and Policy Notes 2005/04, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    15. Benkovskis, Konstantins, 2005. "Econometric analysis and forecasting of Latvia's balance of payments," MPRA Paper 23274, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    export and import specialisation; international trade; panel data estimation; production factor intensities; sectoral trade balance.;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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