Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process
This paper evaluates the specific features of Hungary's macroeconomic performance since 1989 and draws up development scenarios for the future. The two scenarios assume accession and non-accession to the European Union in 2005. It is argued the Hungarian economy's strong reliance on exports and inward FDI, its sensitivity to current account deficits, and household sector's low propensity to save will persist in the coming years, although with some modification. It is envisaged that the most recent fast growth of exports and FDI will decelerate in the future; a modest revival is expected only if the country joins the EU in 2005. With this accession, trade activities will be livelier, with more possibility of increasing investment and the accommodation of higher imports by larger current account deficits. The expected transfers from the Union will be utilized to prepare the ground for another boom in FDI and indigenous investment in the eastern and other backward parts of the country. Only following these will there be a sensible (i.e. more than one percentage point) difference in the growth rate of GDP between the non-accession and the accession scenarios.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2000|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: A-2361 Laxenburg|
Web page: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Catalog/PUB_ONLINE.html
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nauro F. Campos, 1999.
"Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered,"
CERGE-EI Working Papers
wp146, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Campos, Nauro F., 2000. "Back to the future: The growth prospects of transition economies reconsidered," ZEI Working Papers B 13-2000, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
- Campos, Nauro F, 2000. "Back to the Future: the Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CEPR Discussion Papers 2654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nauro Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 229, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Fischer, Stanley & Sahay, Ratna & Vegh, Carlos, 1998. "How far is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," MPRA Paper 20059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ratna Sahay & Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 98/53, International Monetary Fund.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766, April.
- Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
- J. P. Bonin & M. E. Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, firms, bad debts and bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- J Bonin & M Schaffer, 1995. "Banks, Firms, Bad Debts and Bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," CEP Discussion Papers dp0234, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Knack, Steve, 1996. "Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-228, June.
- Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Zsolt M. Darvas & András Simon, 2000. "Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(1), pages 197-223, March.
- Zsolt Darvas & András Simon, 1999. "Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 1999/3, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
- Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro, 1998. "Is There Any Potential in Trade in Sensitive Industrial Products Between the CEECs and the EU?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 285-304, 05.
- Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December.
- J. Gacs & M. Wyzan, 1998. "The European Union and the Rest of the World: Complements or Substitutes for Central and Eastern Europe?," Working Papers ir98020, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
- Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.