IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/iasawp/ir00013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process

Author

Listed:
  • J. Gacs

Abstract

This paper evaluates the specific features of Hungary's macroeconomic performance since 1989 and draws up development scenarios for the future. The two scenarios assume accession and non-accession to the European Union in 2005. It is argued the Hungarian economy's strong reliance on exports and inward FDI, its sensitivity to current account deficits, and household sector's low propensity to save will persist in the coming years, although with some modification. It is envisaged that the most recent fast growth of exports and FDI will decelerate in the future; a modest revival is expected only if the country joins the EU in 2005. With this accession, trade activities will be livelier, with more possibility of increasing investment and the accommodation of higher imports by larger current account deficits. The expected transfers from the Union will be utilized to prepare the ground for another boom in FDI and indigenous investment in the eastern and other backward parts of the country. Only following these will there be a sensible (i.e. more than one percentage point) difference in the growth rate of GDP between the non-accession and the accession scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Gacs, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Hungary and the Accession Process," Working Papers ir00013, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-013.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-00-013.ps
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp146, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    2. Ms. Ratna Sahay & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Mr. Stanley Fischer, 1998. "How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?," IMF Working Papers 1998/053, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hamilton, C.B. & Winters, L.A., 1992. "Opening Up International Trade in Eastern Europe," Papers 511, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    4. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    5. Fritz Breuss & Peter Egger, 1997. "Use and Misuse of Gravity Equations in European Integration Research," WIFO Working Papers 93, WIFO.
    6. Knack, Steve, 1996. "Institutions and the Convergence Hypothesis: The Cross-National Evidence," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 87(3-4), pages 207-228, June.
    7. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    8. János Gács & Robert Holzmann & Michael L. Wyzan (ed.), 1999. "The Mixed Blessing of Financial Inflows," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1714.
    9. Paul Brenton & Francesca Di Mauro, 1998. "Is There Any Potential in Trade in Sensitive Industrial Products Between the CEECs and the EU?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 285-304, May.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 1999. "Hungary: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 1999/027, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Dariusz K. Rosati, 1994. "Output decline during transition from plan to market: a reconsideration," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 2(4), pages 419-441, December.
    12. Zsolt M. Darvas & András Simon, 2000. "Capital Stock and Economic Development in Hungary," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(1), pages 197-223, March.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 1997. "Hungary: Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 1997/104, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Kornai, Janos, 1992. "The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287766, Decembrie.
    15. Gros, Daniel & Gonciarz, Andrzej, 1996. "A note on the trade potential of Central and Eastern Europe," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 709-721, December.
    16. Bonin, J. P. & Schaffer, M. E., 1995. "Banks, firms, bad debts and bankruptcy in Hungary 1991-4," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    18. Robert Summers & Alan Heston, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950–1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 327-368.
    19. J. Gacs & M. Wyzan, 1998. "The European Union and the Rest of the World: Complements or Substitutes for Central and Eastern Europe?," Working Papers ir98020, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    20. Halpern,László & Wyplosz,Charles (ed.), 1998. "Hungary: Towards a Market Economy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521630689, June.
    21. Brenton, Paul & Di Mauro, Francesca, 1999. "The Potential Magnitude and Impact of FDI flows to CEECs," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 14, pages 59-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Volkhart Vincentz & Michael Knogler, 2003. "Szenarien der mittelfristigen Konvergenz der EU-Beitrittsländer Polen, Slowakische Republik und Ungarn," Working Papers 244, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. János Gács, 1999. "Teilprojekt 2: Macroeconomic Developments in the Candidate Countries with Respect to the Accession Process," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 13584, August.
    2. Gimenez, G. & Sanau, J., 2009. "Investment, Human Capital and Institutions: A Multi-equational Approach for the Study of Economic Growth, 1985-2000," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    3. Nauro F. Campos & Abrizio Coricelli, 2002. "Growth in Transition: What We Know, What We Don't, and What We Should," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-836, September.
    4. Gregorio Jiménez & Jaime Sanaú, 2007. "The Desirability of Multi-equational Approaches for the Study of Economic Growth. An Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 02/07, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    5. Günther Rehme, 2011. "Endogenous Policy And Cross‐Country Growth Empirics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 262-296, May.
    6. Fiorillo, Damiano, 2005. "Capitale Sociale Civile: una nota sui concetti e sulla evidenza empirica macro [Civil Social Capital: a note on the concepts and on the macro empirical evidence]," MPRA Paper 3822, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2002. "15 Years of New Growth Economics : What Have we Learnt?," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 5(2), pages 5-15, August.
    8. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2003. "Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 583-604, September.
    9. Crafts, Nicholas & Kaiser, Kai, 2004. "Long-term growth prospects in transition economies: a reappraisal," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 101-118, March.
    10. Wößmann, Ludger, 2000. "Specifying Human Capital: A Review, Some Extensions, and Development Effects," Kiel Working Papers 1007, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Nauro F. Campos, 1999. "Back to the Future: The Growth Prospects of Transition Economies Reconsidered," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp146, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    12. Rossitsa Rangelova, 2002. "Medium-Term Forecastings of the Economic Growth in Bulgaria," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-29.
    13. Martin Wagner & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2005. "CEEC growth projections: Certainly necessary and necessarily uncertain," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(2), pages 341-372, April.
    14. Robert T. Deacon & Henning Bohn, 2000. "Ownership Risk, Investment, and the Use of Natural Resources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 526-549, June.
    15. Chen, Derek H. C. & Dahlman, Carl J., 2004. "Knowledge and development : a cross-section approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3366, The World Bank.
    16. Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
    17. repec:lic:licosd:14404 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. J. Fidrmuc & J. Fidrmuc, 2000. "Macroeconomic Developments in Slovakia and the EU Accession Process," Working Papers ir00007, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    19. Francis Teal & Måns Söderbom, 2003. "Openness and Human Capital as Sources of Productivity Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2003-06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    20. Barrell, Ray & Dawn Holland & Nigel Pain, 2002. "An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 15, Royal Economic Society.
    21. Niclas Berggren & Mikael Elinder, 2012. "Is tolerance good or bad for growth?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 283-308, January.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iiasaat.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.