Medium-Term Forecastings of the Economic Growth in Bulgaria
Issues of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria are considered. Econometric models are used for the purpose of medium-term forecasting of the economic growth in this country. The study is organized as follows. In the first section theoretical issues of the modlling and forecasting of the economic growth in Bulgaria as a country in transition are presented. In particular, the specificities and main patterns of macroeconomic development since the start of transition is described as an undefinite and unfavourable basis for forecasting in medium-term. The quality of statistical data (the time series) in the last over 10 years reflecting the transition economic reality is discussed as well as the nature of the applied models. In the second section medium-term forecasts for Bulgaria's economic growth based mainly on regression analysis are produced. Two alternative scenarios for Bulgaria's accession to the EU are calculated: one that assumes accession in 2007, and another that assumes that the country will not accede to the EU before 2010 (the status quo scenario). A production function is also applied taking into account the theory of endogenous growth. Finally concluding comments are given.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3, Aksakov Str., 1040, Sofia|
Phone: (+359 2) 810 40 18
Fax: (+359 2) 988 21 08
Web page: http://www.iki.bas.bg
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert J. Barro, 1989.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
NBER Working Papers
3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1997.
"I just ran four million regressions,"
Economics Working Papers
201, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
- Fuess, Scott M, Jr & Van den Berg, Hendrik, 1996. "Does GNP Exaggerate Growth in "Actual" Output? The Case of the United States," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(1), pages 35-48, March.
- Stanley Fischer, 1993.
"The Role of Macroeconomic Factors in Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
4565, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992.
"A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
- Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1991. "A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 609, The World Bank.
- Robert M. Solow, 2000. "Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, Winter.
- János Gács, 2000. "Alternative Scenarios for Hungary 's Accession and Macroeconomic Development," KOPINT-DATORG Discussion Paper Archive 60, KOPINT DATORG LTD. Economic Research Division.
- V N Balasubramanyam & M Salisu & David Sapsford., .
"Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries,"
ec18/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
- Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
- Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1988. "A New Set of International Comparisons of Real Product and Price Levels Estimates for 130 Countries, 1950-1985," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 34(1), pages 1-25, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2002:i:1:p:3-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diana Dimitrova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.