Turkish Twin Effects: An Error Correction Model of Trade Balance
Twin deficit hypothesis mainly states that government budget deficits will cause trade deficits. However, this is not the only theoretically possible relationship between the budget deficit and the trade deficit. On the other extreme if Ricardian equivalence hypothesis holds it is also possible that two deficits are not related at all. In this study these hypotheses between the budget deficit and trade deficit for Turkey between 1987 - 2001 period are examined by using the cointegration methodology and by estimating an error correction model. This enabled us to search the relationship between the internal and external deficits both in the short-run and in the long-run. Our analysis showed that there is a long-run relationship between the two deficits. Also the short-run model yielded that worsening of the budget balance worsens the trade balance. Therefore we have concluded that the twin deficit hypothesis holds, and Ricardian equivalence hypothesis is not valid for Turkey during the study period.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2001|
|Date of revision:||Jun 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ankara 06531|
Phone: +90 (312) 210 2003
Fax: (312) 210 1244
Web page: http://www.erc.metu.edu.tr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Rosensweig & Ellis W. Tallman, 1991.
"Fiscal policy and trade adjustment: are the deficits really twins?,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
91-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Rosenswieg, Jeffrey A & Tallman, Ellis W, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and Trade Adjustment: Are the Deficits Really Twins?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(4), pages 580-594, October.
- George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
- Selahattin Dibooglu, 1995.
"Accounting for U.S. Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation,"
- Selahattin Dibooglu, 1997. "Accounting for US current account deficits: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 787-793.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-276, March.
- Peeters, Marga, 1999.
"The Public-Private Savings Mirror and Causality Relations Among Private Savings, Investment, and (twin) Deficits: A Full Modeling Approach,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 579-605, September.
- Peeters, Marga, 1999. "The public-private savings mirror and causality relations among private savings, investment and (twin) deficits: A full modeling approach," MPRA Paper 28715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Peeters, Marga, 1996. "The public-private savings mirror and causality relations among private savings, investment and (twin) deficits: A full modelling approach," MPRA Paper 29630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
- Enders, Walter & Lee, Bong-Soo, 1990. "Current Account and Budget Deficits: Twins or Distant Cousins?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 373-381, August.
- Seater, John J, 1993. "Ricardian Equivalence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 142-190, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:0106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Erol Taymaz)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.