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The Terms-of-Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the Former Soviet Union

In: Trade Policies for Development and Transition

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  • DAVID G. TARR

Abstract

In this paper we provide the first documented estimates of the terms-of-trade impact on all 15 countries of the former Soviet Union of shifting to international prices in their trade. We decompose the total impact of a change in the terms-of-trade into a change in the interrepublic and extrarepublic terms-of-trade. The broad pattern is that raw material and energy exporters, notably Russia, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, are estimated to gain, whereas countries that concentrate on food and machinery exports, notably the Baltic states. Belarus, and especially Moldova, are estimated to be the biggest losers.

Suggested Citation

  • David G. Tarr, 2017. "The Terms-of-Trade Effects of Moving to World Prices on Countries of the Former Soviet Union," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 12, pages 271-294, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:wschap:9789813108448_0012
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    Cited by:

    1. K. Rudgalvis, 1996. "Establishing a new currency and exchange rate determination: the case of Lithuania," CERT Discussion Papers 9604, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.
    2. de Melo, Martha & Denizer, Cevdet & Gelb, Alan & Tenev, Stoyan, 1997. "Circumstance and choice : the role of initial conditions and policies in transition economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1866, The World Bank.
    3. Richard Pomfret & Kathryn H. Anderson, 1997. "Uzbekistan: Welfare Impact of Slow Transition," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-1997-135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Pomfret, Richard, 2012. "Resource management and transition in Central Asia, Azerbaijan and Mongolia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 146-156.
    5. Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2004. "A Wider Europe: Trade Relations Between an Enlarged EU and the Russian Federation," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0279, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2012. "Reforming the power sector in transition: Do institutions matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1675-1682.
    7. M. Caruso, 1995. "The first stage of the transition in the economies of the former USSR: asymmetric shocks, macroeconomic imbalances and seigniorage," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 85-108.
    8. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Central Asia after Two Decades of Independence," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-32, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    9. Richard Pomfret, 2010. "Central Asia after Two Decades of Independence," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-053, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "The Saving Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 445-455, September.
    11. Tarr, David, 2007. "Russian WTO accession : what has been accomplished, what can be expected," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4428, The World Bank.
    12. Schoors, Koen, 2003. "The effect of Soviet monetary disintegration on the collapse of trade between members of the Commonwealth of Independent States," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, March.
    13. Branko Milanović, 2001. "Nations, Conglomerates and Empires: Trade-off Between Income and Sovereignty," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Dominick Salvatore & Marjan Svetličič & Jože P. Damijan (ed.), Small Countries in a Global Economy, chapter 1, pages 25-69, Palgrave Macmillan.
    14. Freinkman, Lev & Polyakov, Evgeny & Revenco, Carolina, 2003. "Armenia’s trade performance in 1995-2002 and the effect of closed borders: a cross-country perspective," MPRA Paper 10065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pomfret, Richard, 2000. "Agrarian Reform in Uzbekistan: Why Has the Chinese Model Failed to Deliver?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 269-284, January.
    16. World Bank, 2004. "Ukraine : Trade Policy Study, Volume 2. Main Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 15656, The World Bank Group.
    17. Michalopoulos, Constantine, 1996. "Payments and finance problems in the Commonwealth of Independent States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1587, The World Bank.
    18. M. Caruso, 1995. "The first stage of the transition in the economies of the former USSR: asymmetric shocks, macroeconomic imbalances and seigniorage," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(192), pages 85-108.
    19. Avanesyan, Vahram & Freinkman, Lev, 2002. "Costing-out the Big Bang: Impact of external shocks on the Armenian economy at the outset of transition," MPRA Paper 10012, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade Policy; Developing Countries; Transition Countries; Growth; Poverty; Environment; Multilateral; Adjustment Costs; Autos and Steel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

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