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The Theory and Measurement of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies


  • Richard Portes


The paper considers issues in recent research on macroeconomic equilibrium in centrally planned economies. I defend the explicit aggregative , macroeconomic approach in theory, institutional relationships and measurement. It has offered a fresh, coherent framework for analysis of many CPE phenomena, opened up a range of possibilities for empirical investigation, and generated several important spinoffs: work of planners' behavior, insights into CPE policy problems of the 1970s and early 1980s, which centred on macroeconomic equilibrium and threats to it; and some developments in market economy macro theory and econometrics. The quantity-rationing macro model and disequilibrium econometrics give a more useful as well as a more nuanced view of macroeconomic reality in CPEs than the conventional wisdom characterizing them as perpetual "shortage economies".

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Portes, 1986. "The Theory and Measurement of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 1875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1875
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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Portes, Richard, 1977. "The Control of Inflation: Lessons from East European Experience," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(174), pages 109-129, May.
    2. Muellbauer, John & Portes, Richard, 1978. "Macroeconomic Models with Quantity Rationing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 788-821, December.
    3. Wojciech Charemza & Richard E. Quandt, 1982. "Models and Estimation of Disequilibrium for Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 109-116.
    4. Gardner, Roy & Strauss, Jonathan, 1981. "Repressed inflation in the Soviet Union : A temporary equilibrium approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 387-404.
    5. Portes, Richard, 1981. "Macroeconomic Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(4), pages 559-578, October.
    6. Thomas A. Wolf, 1985. "Economic Stabilization in Planned Economies: Toward an Analytical Framework (La stabilisation économique dans les économies planifiées: recherche d'un cadre d'analyse) (Estabilización económica e," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(1), pages 78-131, March.
    7. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1977. "The supply of consumption goods in centrally planned economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 351-365, December.
    8. Gourieroux, Christian & Laroque, Guy, 1985. "The Aggregation of Commodities in Quantity Rationing Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 681-699, October.
    9. Jean-Pascal Benassy, 1975. "Neo-Keynesian Disequilibrium Theory in a Monetary Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(4), pages 503-523.
    10. Jean-Michel Grandmont & Guy Laroque, 1976. "On Temporary Keynesian Equilibria," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 53-67.
    11. Hare, Paul G., 1982. "Economics of shortage and non-price control," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 406-425, December.
    12. Weinrich, G., 1984. "On the size of disequilibrium in a equilibrium with quantity rationing," CORE Discussion Papers 1984018, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    13. Pickersgill, Joyce E, 1976. "Soviet Household Saving Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(2), pages 139-147, May.
    14. Frederic L. Pryor, 1977. "Some Costs and Benefits of Markets: An Empirical Study," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 91(1), pages 81-102.
    15. Barro, Robert J & Grossman, Herschel I, 1971. "A General Disequilibrium Model of Income and Employment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(1), pages 82-93, March.
    16. Howard, David H, 1976. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: An Empirical Test of the Barro-Grossman Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 871-879, December.
    17. Portes, Richard & Winter, David, 1978. "The Demand for Money and for Consumption Goods in Centrally Planned Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 8-18, February.
    18. Reconciliation, A & Brada, Josef C., 1982. "Real and monetary approaches to foreign trade adjustment mechanisms in centrally planned economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 229-244.
    19. Richard Portes & David Winter, 1980. "Disequilibrium Estimates for Consumption Goods Markets in Centrally Planned Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 137-159.
    20. Robert J. Barro & Herschel I. Grossman, 1974. "Suppressed Inflation and the Supply Multiplier," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 87-104.
    21. Nissanke, Machiko, 1979. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 726-732, September.
    22. Katz, Barbara Goody, 1979. "The Disequilibrium Model in a Controlled Economy: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 721-725, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Byung Yeon, 1997. "Soviet Household Saving Function," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 181-203.
    2. Portes, Richard & Santorum, Anita, 1987. "Money and the consumption goods market in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 354-371, September.
    3. Tsang, Shu-ki & Ma, Yue, 1997. "Simulating the impact of foreign capital in an open-economy macroeconomic model of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 435-478, July.
    4. Daniel Daianu & Lucian-Liviu Albu, "undated". "Strain and the Inflation - Unemployment Relationship: A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation," Ace Project Memoranda 96/15, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    5. Daniel Daianu, 1996. "Stabilization and exchange rate policy in Romania ," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 4(1), pages 229-248, May.
    6. Solimano, Andres, 1990. "Macroeconomic adjustment, stabilization, and growth in reforming socialist economies : analytical and policy issues," Policy Research Working Paper Series 399, The World Bank.
    7. Daianu, Daniel & Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship: A conceptual and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081201, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    8. Salima Hamouche, 1993. "Contribution à l'étude du déséquilibre sur le marché algérien des biens de consommation," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 63-74.
    9. Dic Lo & Guicai Li & Yingquan Jiang, 2011. "Financial governance and economic development: making sense of the Chinese experience," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(258), pages 267-286.
    10. Cevdet Denizer & Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "The Saving Collapse during the Transition in Eastern Europe," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 14(3), pages 445-455, September.
    11. J. Engwerda & G. Feichtinger & A. Sandmo & B. Fritsch & K. Laski & L. Podkaminer & E. Deutsch & G. Goldrian, 1990. "Book reviews," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 191-208, June.
    12. Erwin Nijsse & Elmer Sterken,, 1996. "Shortages, interest rates, and money demand in Poland, 1969-1995," Working Papers 25, Centre for Economic Research, University of Groningen and University of Twente.
    13. Mokhtari, M., 1996. "Savings under quantity constraints: what can we learn from former Soviet families?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 561-582, October.
    14. Guisan, Maria-Carmen & Aguayo, Eva & Carballas, David, 2004. "Economic Growth and Cycles in Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia: A comparison with Spain, Austria and other EU countries, 1950-2002," Economic Development 79, University of Santiago de Compostela. Faculty of Economics and Business. Econometrics..

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