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Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship: A conceptual and empirical investigation

Author

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  • Daianu, Daniel
  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

Abstract

Economic theory tells that a command system allocates resources poorly because of the impossibility of economic calculation. Therefore, once prices are freed and start to operate at quasi-equilibrium (market-clearing) levels, the hidden inefficiencies come into the open and a massive resource reallocation would have to take place. More precisely, the issue refers to the possible and probable intensity of resource reallocation in view of constraints like the balance between exit and entry in the labour market, the size of the budget deficit and the means for its non-inflationary financing, social and political stability, etc. This paper makes an attempt to conceptualise the emergence of strain emerges an economic system when relative prices change dramatically, and explores what can be implications for stabilisation policy. The start is made with the closed economy, after which the open economy case is looked at, and a possible formalised expression of strain is suggested, The distributional struggle, as a consequence of resource reallocation, is highlighted. Some modelling and empirical analysis help in substantiating the main thesis. it is contented that the line of reasoning espoused herein can help in developing an economic explanation of shocks in economic systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Daianu, Daniel & Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship: A conceptual and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081201, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:081201
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf081201.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Portes, 1986. "The Theory and Measurement of Macroeconomic Disequilibrium in Centrally Planned Economies," NBER Working Papers 1875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Daniel Daianu, 1994. "Inter-Enterprise Arrears in a Post-Command Economy; Thoughts From a Romanian Perspective," IMF Working Papers 94/54, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Vito Tanzi, 1993. "Fiscal Policy and the Economic Restructuring of Economies in Transition," IMF Working Papers 93/22, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Eric V. Clifton & Mohsin S. Khan, 1993. "Interenterprise Arrears in Transforming Economies: The Case of Romania," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(3), pages 680-696, September.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
    6. Sachs, J.D. & Woo, W.T., 1994. "Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Papers 94-01, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    7. Ickes, B.W. & Ryterman, R., 1992. "Inter-Enterprise Arrears and Financial Underdevelopment in Russia," Papers 9-92-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    8. Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Ivan-Ungureanu, Clementina, 1994. "Coût ou bénéfice de la transition
      [Cost or benefit of the transition]
      ," MPRA Paper 14118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciuiu, Daniel, 2012. "Copulas having Zero-Isoline and Economic Applications," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 103-126, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    open economy; Phillips curve; long-run atractor; fractal dimension;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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