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Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation



This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of a Chinese yuan appreciation. The estimated effects on U.S. output and employment are modest. Positive effects on U.S. output from a decrease in imports from China are offset by negative effects on U.S. output from increased inflation and from a decrease in U.S. exports to China because of a Chinese contraction.

Suggested Citation

  • Ray C. Fair, 2010. "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1755, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1755

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2007. "Macroeconomic Modeling for Monetary Policy Evaluation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 25-46, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eddy Bekkers & Joseph Francois, 2014. "Bilateral Exchange Rates and Jobs," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 275-298, May.
    2. Philip Levy, 2011. "The United States and the PRC : Macroeconomic Imbalances and Economic Diplomacy," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23208, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

    More about this item


    Yuan appreciation;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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